Sunday, 29 November 2009


Pandemia nowej grypy może okazać się największą aferą korupcyjną naszych czasów. Do takiego wniosku doszli dziennikarze duńskiej gazety "Information", którzy przeprowadzili śledztwo dotyczące związków ekspertów medycznych Światowej Organizacji Zdrowia (WHO) z największymi firmami farmaceutycznymi.
Koncerny te zarabiają ogromne pieniądze na sprzedaży preparatów przeciwko grypie.
- Zaniepokojenie wywołuje fakt, że wielu naukowców, zasiadających w różnych komitetach WHO, przedstawia się jako niezależni eksperci, a w istocie figurują na liście płac farmaceutycznych gigantów - mówi profesor epidemiologii Tom Jefferson, badacz z Cochrane Center w Rzymie. Naukowiec podkreśla, że choć naturalne środki zaradcze przeciw grypie, jak higiena i częste mycie rąk, mogą być skuteczniejsze, to w dokumentach WHO wspomina się o tym zaledwie kilka razy, podczas gdy o szczepionkach kilkadziesiąt.
O śledztwie duńskich dziennikarzy pisze rosyjski dziennik "Nowye Izviestia". Gazeta wyjaśnia, że wielu naukowców pracujących w WHO, ukrywa fakt otrzymywania pieniędzy od światowych gigantów farmaceutycznych.

Jak pisałem wiele miesięcy temu, świńska grypa to młodsza siostra ptasiej grypy, którą przywołano do życia w 2003, w dobie poprzedniej recesji. Nie tylko pewne grupy zbijają niezłą kasę, ale również szczepionki są mocno podejrzane. Osoby po ataku serca 'muszą' się szczepić prewencyjnie. Wszystkie doniesienia o nowych przypadkach i śmierci pojawiają się regularnie, wszędzie i 'zgodnie'. Kampania pełną parą. Ludzie uwierzą; media wciąż mają siłę przekonywania, a nietypowych przypadków grypy nie braknie.

Hackers Prove Global Warming Is A Scam

It's now official. Much of the hype about global warming is nothing but a complete scam.
Thanks to hackers (or an insider) who broke into The University of East Anglia's Climatic Research Unit (CRU) and downloaded 156 megaybytes of data including extremely damaging emails, we now know that data supporting the global warming thesis was completely fabricated.

Mike Shedlock
21 November, 2009

I have read (officially) an officially published book 'State of Fear' (2004) by Michael Crichton which talks convincingly about the green terrorists and corrupted goverments. The leakage doesn't surprise me, but I doubt it will refrain people from going green or moreover questionnig the media as source of valuable information.

Wednesday, 29 July 2009

Perma-Bears Turn Bullish

If the market was indeed the vicious beast that I described in the beginning of this column, having hurt the bears so much, it now seems likely to go after the bulls …

The trap is set. A lack of follow through, a turn on a dime and a decline in line with fundamentals is all that remains.
The best way to accomplish that is for the S&P 500 index to rise above the June high of 956 and set up an even bigger bull trap!
In doing so, the charts would show an accomplished bottom formation signaling the rally to endure. Bulls would feel vindicated and start buying. And many of the remaining bears would be forced to retreat and abandon their short positions.
Thus the trap is set. The only thing remaining now is a lack of follow through, a turn on a dime and a decline in line with fundamentals.
Claus Vogt, Money and Markets
22 July 2009

Last Thursday, the S&P 500 index rose above its June high. In doing so, it’s showing an important bottoming formation: A huge head and shoulders bottom. Rising volume and strong market breadth confirmed the buy signal. Additional proof came from foreign markets showing more or less the same bullish pattern. And from the 200-day moving averages, which are in the process of turning around as well.
I take these signals seriously. They’re telling me to expect a continuation of the bear market rally off of the March lows.
I deem it probable now that this rally will have legs. And I expect the markets to keep rising and not come under serious pressure again until the second quarter of 2010.
Claus Vogt, Money and Markets
29 July 2009

It is rare to see. Money and Markets 'experts' used to lead the subscribers to a loss, there is a high probability they are wrong this time, too. I recall they advised to sell at all recent bottoms, in October, March and July. They have no respect for waves, sentiment, they only stick to their understanding of fundamentals. Following their advice seems to be one of the quickest ways to lose money.

Tuesday, 30 June 2009

Mass Misconceptions


The main reason why most investors and traders lose money instead of securing stable and considerable profits (which they expect) is lack of trading skills, knowledge and the awareness that such elements are necessary to generate income. All the trading services you may find on the web have one objective : to get money from those who lost money, need trading confidence or any real guidance. Of course, the subscribers get eventually fleeced.
The publishers and writers are scibomaniacs who often do not trade at all - have you ever thought : when do they do trading, posting so many newsletters, sometimes daily?
They are detached from the real price action thus they beam with perma-bull or perma-bear confidence, which although attractive by nature reduces the portfolios to a state beyond recovery. Browsing the Internet, a potential market participant will find all kind of fundamental bullshit, sometimes very sophisticated - using comparisons and blend of facts very appealing to one's imagination. Yes, fundamental long-term investors do make money. So, some are right at least for a period of time. This in no way detracts from the general points made above.
To make money one has to study the charts and acquire trading methods which bring consistent gains on daily, weekly or long-term basis. The throughout knowledge of technical analysis is an absolute must. Then the study of morphology of waves which helps to identify trend and choose adequate strategy. It may take years before the student becomes a successful trader who makes money whichever chart he or she gaze upon. Personally, I do not care about what media or 'experts' have to say. I do not rely on fundamentals at all. I often do follow news for fun or to spot some contrary indicators.

Great Train Robber

Biggs was part of the 15-strong gang who stole £2.6 million from a mail train in Buckinghamshire in 1963. Driver Jack Mills was struck over the head during the raid and never fully recovered before his death seven years later.
Biggs was jailed for 30 years for his part in the robbery but escaped after just 15 months of his sentence and fled to South America.
He handed himself into the authorities after 35 years on the run and is currently on remand in the hospital wing of Norwich Prison but his son has been campaigning for his relief because of his deteriorating health.
Bigg's solicitor Giovanni di Stefano said his client was "ecstatic" at the decision. "He knows about this and he's very pleased and his release is now just a few days away. It's a brand new home that he will be going to and his son will be only a half a mile away and will be able to visit every day."

The British taxpayers (except for some merciful unreasonable souls) don't agree to pay for this criminal's health care. Mr Biggs is an outlaw and should be treated as such. The British justice system has gone a long way and now it became a national service for "social inadequates". If I were Justice, I would give him a 'light tap' with an iron bar despite his condition, I would sentence his bred-with-stolen-money son to a prison-labor camp for life and cut off the tongue of his vicious solicitor.

Saturday, 20 June 2009

Non-Financial Times

Financial Times

Try the FT newspaper and for just £1 for 4 weeks. Top business journalists bring you thought-provoking articles to help frame your thinking. Benefit from detailed coverage of markets, politics and economic policy.

Always behind the curve. Always something everybody seems to know or agree with. Always unable to forecast effectively, your Financial Times. Top business scribomaniacs ready to frame your mind. Are you able to bullshit at their levels? No! So do not hesitate, only £1 a month. If still unsure, you better check their invaluable 5-year archive.

Smart Money vs Dumb Money

It seems individual investors are shoveling money into the market. Inflows into equity funds have been very strong over the past four weeks, according to Trim Tabs Investment Research. And that’s precisely why some pros are getting out. That right, the catalyst that some pros are using to short this market is --you, sucker.

Trimtabs president Charles Biderman is advising all his professional clients to turn entirely bearish on US stocks in part because you’re coming in. He says individuals pointed to the market’s bottom with record outflows in March and now they’re pointing to the top with hefty inflows. In other words, retail investors follow the heard and by the time they join the party it’s practically over. That makes you – and me -- a contrary indicator. "I happen to agree," adds Fast Money trader Guy Adami. "The retail money typically comes in late.”
But why can’t that be a positive? “They’ve always been wrong before,” says Biderman. “They invest with their eyes on the rear view mirror and their foot on the gas and wonder why they crash.” In fact, Biderman thinks we're all wrong. He says top insiders of public companies are not buying -- they’re selling – and as fast as they can.
Lee Brodie, 19 June 2009

Master of Suckers Lee Brodie leads his troops against ugly insiders. The probable outcome will resemble Rocky movies - bumpy road towards dizzily clear skies.
Why? Suckers know they have to buy after a crash and when the recession is over. Those brainless insiders don't, they think they are smarter than that! Secondly : look at those handsome Fast Money guys, ideally fluent in thought and speech. Do not be afraid of an old Biderman. Thirdly, a smart money initiated sell-off will not last if only we 'suckers' don't panic.

Monday, 15 June 2009


Recession is over. Therefore some weakness should be expected at throwing money into not so thriving companies, after which the bull market will resume ahead of the public debt fuelled economic recovery set for 2010. But don't assume I am right, although I may well be.
It is summertime and hailstorm in Manchester.

Złote proporcje

To pewnie nie koniec bańki spekulacyjnej na złocie. Przed nami jednak korekta, która może zepchnąć złoto poniżej 900 dolarów za uncję.

Friday, 1 May 2009

Sounds of the Universe

Depeche Mode have released their new album. Judging by what I saw on youtube prior to the release, I thought it would be their worst album. Then I heard the songs and think the album is very weak. It may be a commercial flop as it is even worse than the previous LP - Playing The Angel. Here I quote some comments from youtube that I liked, mine included.

When people start saying this album is better than Exciter and Playing The Angel, that goes to show you how bad it might be in their past 25 years. I might give it a chance against Exciter, but Playing the Angel had more thump and songs you knew you would go back to. This one, for me and speaking only for me, does not. Ghost and Oh Well the bonus tracks however, work for me.

Wilder left largely because he wasn't getting much credit for what he brought to the band. He brought much of that classic musicality and "darkness" that Depeche Mode is known for. And he said there was a lot of tension in the band and relationships were deteriorating. I'm a longtime DM fan, and the music just wasn't as good after Wilder left. So many speak about Gore and Gahan (and Fletch, ha ha) but don't speak of how much Wilder brought to their sound. Since around 1997, it seems they either are imitating their old styles, and presenting weaker versions of those older songs, or making lightweight songs like this that just don't have the musical or emotional heft that the Wilder-era songs did.

Make sure you listen to Liquid and Subhuman. There is no room there for random barely processed sounds I can get on any synthesizer. DM minus AW had professional musicians for Ultra and to a lesser extent for Exciter. They finally have two new guys from PTA on. All these options are not cheaper than Alan and far below in terms of performance. SOTU - M&D finally took production into their hands (Fletch playing with video camera). Result - the worst album bar A Broken Frame. Since Alan left...those guys don't know 1 tenth of Alan's arsenal as to how to create and prioritize sounds, how to compose song sequences, how to record perfect sound structure without participation in the loudness war. Ultra is still decent, but an army of musicians took part.

After listening to the album, I feel I'm ready to say that of the 4 albums DM released since Alan left, Ultra is the better one. This one, although some interesting ideas and throwback good ol' DMelectro sound, is not living up the high standards they've set up for themselves. Alan departure has left a very noticeable dent into their song making process and the essence of what DM was is gone since Alan left. Their work now seems sub par compared to their previous masterpieces. The last good song that Martin sang was Home from Ultra, after that, I don't know, it feels that they have lost their touch. Not impressed at all, and I'm a life-long DM fan.

Exciter was disappointing. Dull and under produced. Song sequences not developed at all - The Sweetest Condition, Breathe. Melodies became flat, sound uninspired. PTA is a recording disaster. Sound dynamics not only get smashed, but at this point it was the worst DM sound. Speak&Spell sound, although minimalist, was at least clear and functional. Random sounds defying basic principles of sound space (layers of backgrounds) don't let me enjoy PTE. I had a weird feeling when SOFAD cd was released. What I think now, Alan's role in production was diminished...Martin tried to be more artistically involved, Dave started to shout instead of singing while Alan became a drummer.

Actually Wilder co-produced "SOFAD" with Flood.. (Wilder learned to play a drum-kit while the album was being recorded..) "SOFAD" also features some of Gahan's and Gore's best vocals on any one DM Condemnation, One Caress


I just realized what this song reminds me of: Smashing Pumpkins. Take The Cardigans + Smashing Pumpkins on sleeping pills and you'll have "In Sympathy".
"Peace" sounds like a mix of Kraftwerk at their best and Erasure at their worst, with a little bit of The Beatles on the side.

Depeche Mode in their own eyes

Dave Gahan, 2003 : "Martin wouldn't acknowledge that Alan contributed incredibly much to Martin's songs. And now I think you can easily say Alan's input is missed. I actually think that even Martin would admit that today. And that is something he probably ought to call and tell Alan after all these years. He would definitely appreciate it."

Dave Gahan on Exciter's production :"Our producer on 'Exciter', Mark Bell, said that he really wouldn't make the entire album for us. So then i had to tell him some news: "Yes you f'u'c'king are!". And then he just pulled up his sleeves and went to work with the computer and Martin would look him over the shoulder and mumble "o.k."

Alan Wilder about DM : "Depeche Mode, these days, is essentially a Martin Gore solo project with Dave singing - it is bound to sound different and perhaps people just miss the translation onto record of 'band interaction' / 'chemistry' / 'tension' - call it what you will." "I still feel remixes are undertaken for the wrong reasons - as marketing tools - and that sours their effect for me."

Alan Wilder on the volume war, 2008 :

"We live in a world of technology - exponentially increasing breakthroughs in all things scientific. So fast that we can't even keep up with it. So why is it that the audio quality of music is degenerating? Music 'sounds' worse. We have stopped listening, we don't have time. We only have time to be smacked in the face by the loudest, most attention-grabbing blast of souped-up noise imaginable until ear fatigue sets in and the desire to 'change the record' takes over. Why are the adverts on TV twice the volume of the regular broadcasts?
It's the only way to get our attention in the VOLUME WAR.

In recent years, a revolution in processing technology has instigated a change in the way albums are mastered. In order to compete, A&R men, producers, even the artists are demanding that mastering engineers, via digital compression, crank up the level so high that all dynamic range is callously sacrificed.

(Compression essentially increases the volume of the quieter elements within a mix while holding steady the peaks of the louder parts)

The effect of excessive compression is to obscure sonic detail and rob music of its emotional power leaving listeners strangely unmoved. In fact, the ear naturally compresses high volume blasts to protect itself - this is why we associate compression with level. Our sophisticated human brains have evolved to pay particular attention to any loud noise, so initially, compressed sounds seem more exciting. It is short lived. After a few minutes, research shows, constant volume grows tiresome and fatiguing.

True excitement comes from variation in rhythm, tone, pitch and a wide range of dynamics which in turn provides space and warmth - something you're unlikely to find in much of today's rock/pop music. If you want a good example, listen to The Arctic Monkeys 'I Bet You Look Good on the Dance Floor' for a bombardment of the most unsubtle, one-dimensional noise."

Thursday, 30 April 2009

Koniec kwietnia

Nie wierzę w za kilkaset lat w muzyce zwanej rozrywkową (po prawdzie, każda jest rozrywkową, nawet mszalna). Bagaż melodii do poznania...już dziś nie sposób usłyszeć wszystkiego, co warte. Choć człowiek zna tylko jeden kierunek - więcej, szybciej i lepiej, to ziemia jest ziemią i inne prawo na niej panuje.

Świńska grypa nie jest zagrożeniem
. Zwykła ludzka grypa zabija tysiące ludzi rocznie i nikt nie panikuje. Media mają swoje interesy, żeby dmuchać w temat do czerwoności. Jak zakończyła się saga z ptasią grypą? Jedno jest pewne - zaczęła się w dobie kryzysu ekonomicznego, w 2003.

Zgodnie z moimi przewidywaniami okazało się, że Kubica w BMW to droga donikąd. Miły akcent, że prowadzi w rywalizacji 'zapytaj eksperta'. Nie sądzę, żeby 'ulepszenia' w Hiszpanii doprowadziły do rewolucji w tabeli punktowej. Natomiast myślę, że Ferrari pokaże nowe oblicze.

Pamiętaj chemiku młody - na ziemi nie ma wiedzy neutralnej. Każdy atom logiki pływa w morzu funkcji mniej lub bardziej nadętej manii. Ostatnio czytałem na pewnym blogu, że świat się wali, a ocaleniem świata będą Chiny. Autor blogu zapewne nigdy nie był w Chinach, ani nie zna osobiście żadnego Chińczyka.

A wiedza do niczego mi nie jest potrzebna. Gdy wszystko skończy się jak myślałem, wsyp mnie do ziemi, skąd przyjechałem.

Friday, 27 March 2009

Sul progresso

Popularny serwis poświęcony Formule 1, przewiduje jak potoczą się losy rywalizacji o mistrzostwo w sezonie 2009. Eksperci typują polskiego kierowcę BMW Sauber Roberta Kubicę jako głównego kandydata do tytułu.

Zapomnijta ludzie w 2009 o Kubicy. BMW Sauber ma problem. Kubica dostał nakaz wyrażania się pozytywnie o zespole. I powiedział - "jest zabawnie". W Australii będzie najwyżej piąty, lub nie ukończy wyścigu.

US Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner shocked global markets by revealing that Washington is "quite open" to Chinese proposals for the gradual development of a global reserve currency run by the International Monetary Fund.

World currency is coming. The scary thing is the majority of global population will embrace it with optimism. Those opposed will be eliminated. There are too many weapons in the central bankers arsenal. On the other hand, only a slight percentage of humans question central banking.

Stock markets in Asia climbed for a fifth day, helped by banking and mining shares, after the Federal Reserve’s surprise decision to buy $300bn (£210bn) of Treasuries increased hopes that economic growth will revive.

I was surprised so many experts I respect called the bottom. The charts, however, say nothing about the trend reversal. Before the end of this economic carnage we will see indices at deeper lows. I think. I am not always right. Interestingly, those who scream the loudest, scream inflation and hyperinflation as well.

Grâce à ces mesures, en cinq ans, nous pouvons atteindre le plein emploi, c’est à-dire un chômage inférieur à 5% et un emploi stable à temps complet pour tous. C’est de cette manière que nous pourrons vraiment réduire la pauvreté, l’exclusion et la précarité.
Nicolas Sarcozy, 2007

On sait quelles mesures. Comme la cause économique du chômage est le progrès technique et l'évolution de la productivité, il suffit de ralentir le progrès et de rabaisser la productivité. Une petite consolation - dans la quête du pire le socialisme français est facilement surpassé par : l’art du discours.

Tuesday, 24 March 2009

Have Faith

I feel good. I am fearless. Women love me. I do not know. Know what? Who knows.

You may think beliefs, thoughts and sensual reflection of the reality are at the centre of you. This is not true. The centre is your Heart.

You may think you have always worked hard so you deserve a small mercy of Justice. You have wasted your life working hard to no effect.

You are the only person whom you can trust. So why are you the person thought to be by those whom you cannot trust? Have you ever thought you were denied all your life?

I feel good. I can bear the pain. I see the future which is no good.

"I write and leave behind me this letter at Saint Petersburg. I feel that I shall leave life before January 1. I wish to make known to the Russian people, to Papa, to the Russian Mother and to the Children, to the land of Russia, what they must understand. If I am killed by common assassins, and especially by my brothers the Russian peasants, you, Tsar of Russia, will have nothing to fear for your children, they will reign for hundreds of years in Russia. But if I am murdered by boyars, nobles, and if they shed my blood, their hands will remain soiled with my blood, for twenty-five years they will not wash their hands from my blood. They will leave Russia. Brothers will kill brothers, and they will kill each other and hate each other, and for twenty-five years there will be no nobles in the country. Tsar of the land of Russia, if you hear the sound of the bell which will tell you that Grigori has been killed, you must know this: if it was your relations who have wrought my death, then no one in the family, that is to say, none of your children or relations, will remain alive for more than two years. They will be killed by the Russian people. I go, and I feel in me the divine command to tell the Russian Tsar how he must live if I have disappeared. You must reflect and act prudently. Think of your safety and tell your relations that I have paid for them with my blood. I shall be killed. I am no longer among the living. Pray, pray, be strong, think of your blessed family. -Grigori"

Some say this letter is not authentic. Some have a ready explanation for every controversy surrounding Rasputin. However, we must conclude there is more mystery about him than anything else. Facts no one can deny : this guy was there. Killed a few months before the bloodiest revolutions. Urging Russia to sign a peace treaty with Germany. Holding sway over the most powerful family in Russia. Being probably the only man able to prevent the revolution, death of millions and 100 years of oppression that ensued.

Saturday, 21 March 2009

Obama Nope

President Barack Obama began his term with record approval rating. Barack Obama's inaugural approval rating of 83% easily topped John F. Kennedy's inaugural approval rating of 72%, the previous record set in 1961. Within three days, however, Barack Obama's approval rating tumbled 15 points to 68% after his executive order on a highly controversial issue and as the true details of his economic plan and religious beliefs began to emerge. Barack Obama's current rating is driven by his policies on the economy, Iraq, Afghanistan, Iran, as well as his positions on marriage and abortion, including of babies born alive, and does suffer from racism. Like the Presidents before him, President Obama and his handlers are doing their best to manage the media and thereby manage the public's expectation and approval rating.

Voters hoped for an end to Iraq war, Wall Street bail-outs and police state under pretext of "war on terrorism". As anybody who has eyes to see and ears to hear would guess, things advanced in another direction. US Military Budget will grow further. Not only the US troops won't leave Iraq, but the US are reinforcing their position in Afghanistan, Poland and Czech Republic surrounding Russia. Bail-out money (tax-payers money) flows freely into the chosen few pockets. The Fed continues to dictate policies and prepare government agenda.
Voters still fear President Barack Obama will be assassinated. Although, John Kennedy was assassinated because he wanted to usurp the Fed's power. Voters are not concerned with Obama's Youth movement, because Hitler wasn't black, gentle and smiling.
But time will bring change. Illusion will go. Instead of resolving the mystery of a highly suspicious WTC destruction, President Obama is likely to bring about more financial hardship, political trouble and social anger.

Encore une manif

"I am certain that if Obama and the Pelosi/Reed Congress succeed in fully implementing their agenda, there is no chance the U.S economy will recover its position as world's leading economy".
Peter Schiff

Right, Mister Schiff, you cannot recover what you haven't lost.

Telegraph reports:
Violence on Paris streets as millions protest


Schools, courts, post offices, universities and hospitals were closed, with public transport severely disrupted, as up to 200 marches were organised against President Nicolas Sarkozy's approach to the global downturn. The biggest protests were in Paris, where police said up to 85,000 people took five hours to walk from Place de la République to Place de la Nation. As the light faded, hundreds of riot police were sent to the area where anarchist groups waving revolutionary flags were among those massing. Riot police fired rounds of tear gas after demonstrators lit fires and smashed shop windows. Fighting broke out on all corners of the square, with police moving in to try to arrest ring leaders.

You have to search for this kind of news. You will learn about riots in Europe capitals from Wikipedia. Forget about "mainstream media" - machine of mass disinformation.

Chants of "Sarkozy resign" were heard as what appeared to be well organised gangs went on the rampage in surrounding streets, targeting banks and other symbols of capitalism. A riot police spokesman said: "There are a number of people who seem determined to cause trouble. We are doing everything we can to maintain order."

Baby boomers will do everything to suffocate freedom. Banks and tyrannic "democracy" are the symbols of their beliefs.

Earlier, unions said that the number of protesters nationwide had approached three million. Police put the estimate at greater than the two million who took part in similar demonstrations at the end of January. The latest strike won support across the country, with three quarters of those questioned in polls saying they feared for their futures. Mr Sarkozy unveiled a package of proposals, including tax breaks and social benefits, after January's strike, but protesters said the £2.3 billion deal was not enough. The president said on Wednesday he understood "the concerns of the French people" but ruled out plans for further measures.

Any protesters' input, though, into the economic policies will probably lead to a greater disaster. Their minds are 100% socialist. They have been brainwashed for decades by mass media and public education system. As long as life is livable (relatively), protesters will vote for Sarcozy and global imbeciles' world.

Sunday, 8 March 2009

Human Lawmakers

If I were Economy, I would find it easy to defeat today's humans. First of all, I would notice how little they and their leaders understand about me. How far they have gone from me and how vulnerable they have become. Every human illusion finally finds its place on the rock bottom of reality. But this time, harsher life-lessons await. Never before in human history, was so little understood by so many and laughed at by so few.

Whatever the humans can say about animals, however poor animals' understanding of humans may be, I would have this to say: blackbirds, lady-birds and black apes know me better. Unless they are endangered by human tyranny, they deal with freedom, lots of sunshine and leisure time. This is something the humans can only dream of.
The humans possess a dangerous tool. They call it brain. This brain operates small amounts of sensual derivatives, called thoughts. Eventually, the attraction of thought grew into information, science and beliefs - vision of reality. In this derived environment, the humans picked up the task of reforming the laws of nature, and of me, Natural Economy. I was not surprised to see dismal results: starvation, mass extermination and weapons of destruction challenging the planet itself.

Original animal perception verging on clairvoyance has long gone. The humans are today driven by popular beliefs which resemble pure lunacy when you think deeper. Economically, the more their brain tries to outsmart me, the poorer they become. It thinks: consumption will increase employment. Employment brings about wealth. To stimulate consumption, we need credit and 2% inflation. Do you hear me, lazy lizards? You will handle a sledgehammer 10 hours a day, you will live in concrete bunkers and be linked electronically to all the world's lizards. But no leisure. You must be acquiring more and more skills and worry...about debt. Doesn't sound attractive? Well, you have no choice. You would be stigmatized in the lizards world.

At economic universities, the history of human economic defeats is called : History of Economic Progress. It is not to suggest that after the defeat, understanding and improvements ensue. In contrary, the human brain targets symptoms and ignores the real fundamentals. Fights war with more armament. Maintains (credit inspired) overpopulation with child tax credit. Props up self-liquidating excess of debt by credit expansion. Creates value losing currency to hold up the level of spending. What spending? No-matter-what. Any. Business opportunities will abound. All you need is brains.

If I were Economy, I would find it easy. But it doesn't play games, doesn't fight wars. Its laws last eternally somewhere around, as the human economic parody crumbles to dust once again under its own impossibility.

Monday, 2 March 2009

Game of Chess Lost by Whole Generation

"You've got some economists and some folks who think they're economists. By the way, these days everybody thinks they're economists"
Barack Obama

Timothy Geithner, David Cutler, Robert Rubin, Elizabeth Duke, Edmund Phelps, James Galbraith, Jason Furman, Joseph Stiglitz, Austan Goolsbee, Gene Sperling, Donald Kohn, Jared Bernstein, Heidi Hartmann, Karen Kornbluh, Robert Solow, Jeff Liebman, Larry Summers, Dan McFadden, Brad Delong, Robert Reich, Daniel Tarullo, Richard Thaler, David Romer, Kevin Warsh, Christina Romer, Ben Bernanke and Alan Greenspan.

All these top figures along with the rank and file of mainstream economists believe in credit expansion. All these grandmas and grandpas believe in Keynesian dogmatism. None of them questions the existence of fiat money nor sins of central banking. Everybody else doesn't need a Ph.D. in economics to start pointing fingers at them. Those old folks have built a failure system and, by preventing its due collapse, want to drag everybody down. Nobel Prize intellectually deficient people will never allow free market capitalism free from government-created money. Look below at what kind of utter nonsense these 'top economists' are capable of.

In the fall of 1999, US central bank (Fed) officials gathered to talk about deflation: What would they do if faced with deflation, or widespread falling prices, and they already had cut interest rates to zero? Deflation is dangerous because it makes it hard to boost the economy by cutting interest rates, and because it makes debt harder to repay. At this meeting, researchers brainstormed about possible ways the Fed could spur spending, such as adding a magnetic strip to dollar bills that would cause their value to drop the longer they stayed in one's wallet.
Other proposals, some possibly not legal, were for the Fed to lend to private companies or buy things such as stocks, real estate or even goods and services, such as used cars. And then there are those magnetic strips. Marvin Goodfriend, a top economist at the Richmond Fed, proposed at the Woodstock conference that a way to stimulate the economy if interest rates are already at zero is to levy a fee on banks that keep cash on deposit with the Fed rather than lending it out, and to find a way to make currency worth less the longer it goes unspent -- thus the magnetic strips. When someone deposited a bank note, a "carry tax" would be deducted according to how long it had been since it was withdrawn. These charges for holding on to cash would effectively create negative interest rates. "Asking people to carry around some one-dollar bills that are worth 99.4 cents and some that are worth 98.4 cents would be a terrible nuisance," Alan Blinder, a former Fed vice chairman, observed at the Woodstock meeting. He added, "Prevention is far better than the cure."
Source :

Monday, 23 February 2009

Logical Hyperinflationist Rebuttal

Peter Schiff has recently explained how the 'temporary strength in the dollar' has destroyed his vision of events and his clients' portfolios. Eric deCarbonnel, on the other hand, takes on Peter Schiff's critics by depicting the same hyperinflationary collapse which looms over the US.

The root cause of deflation and hyperinflation is the same: a nation plagued by mountain of debt. This mountain of debt can be in form of a massive national debt, an insolvent financial system, or both. What determines whether a debt-plagued nation experiences deflation or hyperinflation is the response of that nation’s monetary authority:

A) If the monetary authority does nothing while a country defaults on its debt, its banks go bankrupt, and its depositors see their savings wiped out, then that country will experience deflation.
B) If the monetary authority chooses to monetize a country’s national debt, its banks’ bad loans, or the savings of depositors at failed banks, then that country will experience hyperinflation.

It is simply not true. Japan did monetize debts, saved its banking system and kept the interest rates at zero. For 2 decades I have heard about bad loans kept alive in the Japanese banks. Eric's description argues : after 20 years of hyperinflationary monetary policies in Japan, you would need today ten truck loads of money to buy a loaf of bread.

Today, the US is the nation facing hyperinflation as the fed monetizes debt, and the EU looks set for deflation as the ECB allows Europe’s financial system to collapse.
The USD rally will end when Europe's financial system starts collapsing. Investors will realize that the EU won't print money to bail out its banks, and that will send the euro soaring against the dollar.

No. Europe has been bailing out its banks for over a year. It is bailing out its automobile industry. Europe will continue to bail them out not to allow its financial system to collapse and the economy to halt. Germany's opposition will likely lead to the euro's ultimate collapse. Europe is printing like mad, although quietly.

Anyone who thinks things are going badly in China hasn’t been paying attention. Optimism is growing in China. Economists now project that China will be the likely leader of an elusive worldwide economic recovery.
China has irreversibly begun to break its “dependence” on US consumers.

This cannot be serious. China has a centrally and manually orchestrated economy. Poverty, corruption, reliance on the capital and technology from the West. China is boosting its housing market by : slashing mortgage rates, lowering real estate purchase tax, council tax and land tax. This is an inflationary war footing against prudent savers. The average Chinese household may have saved up to 20.000 pounds. Optimism will turn savings into housing bubble and electronic gadgets. So much for a worldwide economic recovery.

3) China’s treasury holdings are a much bigger problem for China than they are for the US.

I love this one. While it is true that China is having problems dealing with their massive dollar reserves, to then say that those reserves are a bigger problem for China then the US is hilarious.

Simply put, if you had to choose, which problem would you rather have?

A) China’s problem of having “too much cash”
B) The US’s problem of having “too much debt”

I choose too much debt. As long as I print their 'too much cash' and I default on somebody else's lending.

The US is not facing a decade of falling prices, because :

Agricultural commodities NEED to head higher and soon, to prevent even greater food shortages and famine. The price of wheat, corn, soybeans, etc must rise to a level which encourages the planting of every available acre with the best possible fertilizers. Otherwise, if food prices stay at their current levels, production will continue to fall, sentencing millions more to starvation.

Unless you pay with currency gaining purchasing power, which will be the unfortunate case.

6) If China floated the yuan, it could easily get smashed like other export based economies.

A quick comparison of the fundamentals backing the yuan and the dollar should reveal how they would fare if the yuan was floated.

I won't sell USD/CNY. It would be pure suicide. Besides, Eric's comparison doesn't take into account the most important fundamentals; 1) USD is a world reserve currency. 2) USA are the world's biggest economy. 3) China's economy is flawed and unnatural.3) So is CNY.

ANYTHING is better than the US dollar: Yuan, euro, yen, gold, silver, oil, food, art, etc… Even the British pound will be worth more against the dollar by the end of the year. (and the British pound isn’t going to be worth much…)

This stands against 7 month USD bull market. Everything but JPY has been smashed in dollar terms. Currency trends last longer than 7 months. Price trends eliminate investors who stick to ill-conceived beliefs.

Świat się wali, ale co ja mogę

Dziś, z łóżka się zwlekłszy, poszedłem na zakupy. Inaczej niż zwykle, nie płaciłem kartą i byłem piechotą. Kupiłem smar do roweru oraz piłkę do metalu. Specyficzne : potrafię dłubać przy rowerze godzinami. Gdybym te godziny poświęcił na nadgodziny w pracy, po jednej dniówce kupiłbym 2 razy lepszy rower. Chyba to lubię.

Byłem w centrum rowerowym. Zobaczyłem wystawę - muzeum przerzutek. Stare były używane, nowe były nowe. Widocznie nikt nie myślał o uwiecznianiu przy cudzie stworzenia - w latach sześćdziesiątych. Poza tym stwierdziłem, że przerzutka to przerzutka. Bardziej chodzi o modę niż wydajność. Zwłaszcza, że moda panuje na trefne części zamienne, chleb dla serwisów.

Lidl. Polska wędlina, parówki Frankfurters. Przede mną Azjatka koło 50-tki. Siwe odrosty, trochę się rozpycha na podajniku. Pewnie była urodziwa, dziś pozostało jej : być kobietą, stosując powszechnie uznane środki. Pani przy kasie zbiera kody pocztowe. It's a part of the survey - tłumaczy. Azjatka nie odpowiedziała. Stawiam na to, że nie rozumie po tutejszemu. Ja odpowiadam - sure. To najbliższy mi Lidl.

Naprawiłem rower Chińczykowi. Z radości zaserwował mi sweet corn soup oraz garlic bread. Pytam się, czy mogę użyć ketchupu. Odpowiedział - If you need, you can use ketchup. Thanks for permission. Jeżeli Izrael zaatakuje Iran, Rosja stanie po stronie Iranu, a USA za Izraelem - co zrobią Chiny? zapytałem. Namyśla się. Będą czekać - odpowiada. Na rozwój wypadków. Będą dużo mówić, ale akcji nie podejmą. Do gry wejdą na końcu.

Przeglądnąłem newsy w Polsce. Po staremu - poszukiwanie winnych osłabienia złotego. Żenada. Witch hunters nie zastanawiają się nad niebywałą siłą złotego aż do sierpnia 2008. Nie widzą, że wszystkie bez wyjątku waluty regionu słabną; widzą natomiast że złoty najsłabszy jest. A czy wiedzą, ile Polska ma długu. I w końcu złowiono - Goldman Sachs oraz Danske Bank. I wyzywają od Żydów, którzy zrujnowali polski biznes. Nieważne, że każdy frankowy kredytobiorca to spekulant sprzedający franka. Że firma, zabezpieczająca się przez umocnieniem złotego, kupuje go, spekulując na jego wzrost.

Elity rządzące natomiast są w wielkim szoku. PO - Tusk i Chlebowski - proponują bezzwrotne dopłaty do kredytów we frankach. Aczkolwiek nie wiadomo jeszcze, czy do końca bezzwrotne. I czy tylko dla bezrobotnych. I do każdego rodzaju mieszkania. Wnioskuję przeto, że Donku faktycznie zamierza urządzić drugą Irlandię, która tylko dzięki oparciu o ECB nie zbankrutowała. My, obywatele, mieszkańcy miast i wsi, śpieszmy z pomocą - rzucić pieniążki na tacę PO. Bo desperado frankowcy źle sobie wykalkulowali. PO jednak gryzie bilet w jedną stronę - jeżeli oszczędni i rozumni się postawią, te miliony można wydrukować. Bez uszczerbku na kursie złotego, przecież już niedługo znajdziemy się pod skrzydłami boskiego euro!

Upiekłem faszerowanego kurczaka. Dzwonił Mike 4 razy, ale nie miałem okazji odebrać. Na polu (tak, na polu) ciepło jak w późno marcowej Małopolsce.

Sunday, 8 February 2009

O co chodzi?

Czyli polowania na czarownice ciąg dalszy.

"To zamach na polską gospodarkę. Trzeba jak najszybciej podjąć kroki, by uciąć wielką spekulację na rynku złotego. Trzeba też zmusić banki, by wypiły piwo, jakie samy nawarzyły".
Zbigniew Jakubas

Zbigniew Jakubas wstał rano, otrzepał słomę i wziął widły do ręki. A że niewiele miał ze Spartakusa, zaraz zrobił sobie krzywdę. I z niesmakiem odrzucił widły w kąt. Po czym zaplanował sobie, że zabierze głos. I powiedział, co wiedział. A co wiedział, okazało się dziurą w miejsce formalnej edukacji i nieznajomością rzeczywistości za płotem.

"Wydarzenia na rynku walutowym to celowa gra. Chodzi o doprowadzenie do zamykania pozycji na wystawionych przez firmy opcjach kupna waluty przy możliwie słabym złotym. Obecne kursy są już absurdalne. Dlatego spodziewam się fali bankuctw wśród firm, które są mocniej zaangażowane na rynku opcji walutowych".
Ryszard Petru

A ja bym się spodziewał po bankowym 'autorytecie' wstydu i strachu przed kompromitacją. "Celowa gra" to bardzo ciekawa teoria, z której nie wytłumaczą pana Rysia krawat, gładka mowa i wymuskany blog.

"Przyspieszenie osłabienia zwykle poprzedza zmianę trendu. Bardziej jestem skłonny wierzyć w to, że mamy do czynienia ze spekulacyjnym osłabieniem złotego. Możemy podejrzewać, że istnieją jakieś duże opcje na rynku, pod które toczy się gra, a nie, że mamy do czynienia z jakimś fundamentalnym odwrotem od złotego".
Emil Szweda

Koń by się uśmiał. Przyspieszenie trendu może, ale nie musi poprzedzać korekty. Dlaczego od razu zmianę trendu? Trendy walutowe trwają latami, a ten się dopiero zaczął. A fundamenty mają to do siebie, że leżą tam, gdzie wzrok (zwłaszcza Emila S.) nie sięga.

"Projekt ustawy unieważniającej niekorzystne dla klientów umowy na opcje walutowe z bankami zaproponuje rządowi PSL - zapowiedział dziś szef Stronnictwa, wicepremier, minister gospodarki Waldemar Pawlak."

Spekulant Pawlak lepiej niech cepa na banki nie podnosi, bo nie przystoi.

"To pierwsza tak stanowcza wypowiedź przedstawiciela rządu na ten temat. Wierzę, że zapowiedzi wicepremiera zostaną zrealizowane"
Zbigniew Jakubas

Spekulant Jakubas umoczył kasę, a teraz chce napadu na bank. Kiedy zarabiał przy mocnym złotym, siedział cicho jak urżnięte prosię.

O co chodzi? Nie o to, że wszystkie waluty od sierpnia 2008 straciły do dolara i jena. Że im mniejszy i bardziej zadłużony kraj, tym bardziej się oberwało. Nie o to, że Kazachstan zdewaluował tengę. Że Fitch Ratings obniżył rating długu Rosji po raz pierwszy od 1998 roku. Że trend wzrostowy na złotym trwał lat kilka, a 6 miesięcy temu definitywnie się skończył. Że w obliczu kryzysu, który nadciąga, złoty z łatwością pobije rekordy słabości z lat 2001-2002. Chodzi o to, że banda nieuków i kaszaniarzy, tytułowanych prezesami, dyrektorami i ministrami, brzydko się bawi po tym, jak im nie wyszły spekulacje. Zapłaćcie, coście winni, i nie brać się za FOREX, bo to rynek dla elit!

Sunday, 1 February 2009

Viking Soul

“Our enemies are innovative and resourceful, and so are we. They never stop thinking about new ways to harm our country and our people, and neither do we.”

One may wonder how come George Bush remained in power for so many years and didn't lock up himself.

"One would need a type of agreement on lost capital, so that the burden is shared, and in which every country is part of, otherwise more countries will suffer. The EU should do this. If they don't do this then the euro may not survive the crisis."

29 January, 2009
George Soros

In July, 2008, Soros shorted oil at $137 a barrel and put on a long position in gold. I smiled then. But it wasn't funny to see this trade to be thus successful. Note: Euro = Insolvent Ireland. Socialist France. Housing bubble Spain. Inflationist Italy. Export oriented Germany. (Ouch!)
There's a dozen reasons why we should see Euro-USD parity within months. Those who found refuge in the euro will likely run further into the dollar, yen and gold.

Telegraph reports:

For years scientists have failed to discover why as many as one in five pregnancies in a small Brazilian town have resulted in twins – most of them blond haired and blue eyed. But residents of Candido Godoi now claim that Mengele made repeated visits there in the early 1960s, posing at first as a vet but then offering medical treatment to the women of the town. Shuttling between Argentina, Paraguay and Brazil, he managed to evade justice before his death in 1979, but his dreams of a Nazi master race appeared unfulfilled. In a new book, Mengele: the Angel of Death in South America, the Argentine historian Jorge Camarasa, a specialist in the post-war Nazi flight to South America, has painstakingly pieced together the Nazi doctor's mysterious later years. After speaking to the townspeople of Candido Godoi, he is convinced that Mengele continued his genetic experiments with twins – with startling results.

Quite a long and peaceful life for a German psycho killer. Did you ever feel protected from evil? That is a dangerous illusion inseparable from human nature.

"Let me be clear on one point: I can’t predict the short-term movements of the stock market. I haven’t the faintest idea as to whether stocks will be higher or lower a month — or a year — from now. What is likely, however, is that the market will move higher, perhaps substantially so, well before either sentiment or the economy turns up. So if you wait for the robins, spring will be over."
16 October, 2008
Warren Buffet, arguably the richest man on earth

Today, the stocks are 20% cheaper. I did better than that. From today's point of view, Buffet's call was a cry for help. This guy doesn't get that some can't afford to lose 20% or more of their assets. I won't touch stocks with a ten-foot pole for the next couple of months.

Dailymail reports :

Inside the shiny new hospital, a tormented soul stalks the wards and corridors. Yet this is no ill patient, overworked junior doctor or beleaguered NHS trust executive. It is a ghost – or so says a leaked memo from a manager. Several workers at the £334million Royal Hospital in Derby have apparently been scared witless by the apparition, which they describe as a man dressed in black and wearing a cloak, who can walk through walls. Some believe the visitor is the ghost of a Roman soldier. The site used to be occupied by Derby’s City General Hospital, which was controversially built over one of Ancient Britain’s main Roman roads. Spooky past: The hospital was built over the Roman road in the 1920s leading to speculation that the ghost may be that of a Roman soldier killed there.

I speak to Roman soldiers from time to time. They say the Vikings spook them. They always remember to mention they discovered America before the Vikings. Sometimes, I think they speak to me because I am a Viking, too.

Sunday, 25 January 2009

Current trends

Dollar : bullish
Yen : bullish
Exotic currencies : bearish
Money purchasing power : growing
Stocks : bearish
Oil : bottoming
Gold : sideways
Chinese Democracy : GNR's worst album
Gwyneth Paltrow : most beautiful
My health : steady
Love : I don't do love
Sian : gone to Asia
Winter : turning into spring
Hanging on the wall : charts of my life trends

It doesn't matter who you believe you are. It doesn't matter who you are not. Your mind is like liquid silver. When I take a dive into my memory, I cannot believe how much I lived through. I have an impression I had many personalities and different lives. I was happier when I was poorer and had less to lose. People are rational. But the colours they see don't talk to them about the light source.
The light of our mind is lit early in our lives. It may be modified once or twice later. Some can turn it on and off. They are called clairvoyants or abominable witches.

Saturday, 24 January 2009


Źródło :

Globalne delewarowanie ma się dobrze. W perspektywie kilku lat, gospodarki rozwijające się, w tym polska, najgorzej odczują światową recesję. Efektami będą : wysokie bezrobocie, tanie waluty, ujemny wzrost gospodarczy. Powodami są - eksportowy model gospodarki oraz globalny przepływ kapitału. Poniżej natomiast zamieszczam zabawne komentarze z forum na temat osłabienia polskiej waluty. Jakbym czytał uduchowiony podręcznik do środowiska z XII wieku.

Polowanie na czarownice

Bańka!!! mieliśmy już bańkę internetową, bańkę mieszkaniową, a teraz na naszych oczach pompowana jest bańka walutowa. A najgorsze jest, że ta bańka pompowana jest Waszymi oszczędnościami. Mechanizm jest prosty - trzeba krzyczeć, że złoty się osłabia i nasze pieniądze są coraz mniej warte, a jednocześnie banda oszlołomów przechwala się, ile to już zarobiła na inwestycji w waluty.


Bardzo dobrze piszesz. Dodam tylko, że osłabienie złotówki podtrzyma wzrost gospodarczy w Polsce. Ta bańka jest na razie korzystna, więc pewnie długo nie potrwa.


Należy dodać, że to jest potężna "spekuła". Rośnie nie tylko eurodolar, ale wszystkie inne waluty/: forint , rubel, funt, lit, łat, korona czeska, dolar nowozelandzki, australijski.


Czołowe banki inwestycyjne probują odkuć straty w USA na Polaczkach wmawiając, że złoty popłynie i wrzucając kasę na nasz płytki rynek, przy jednoczesnym zapchaniu portfeli futuresami na PLN.


Dzisiaj to tylko korekta przed odbiciem. Za miesiac zobaczycie euro po 3,15, a funta za 2,5zł ,taka prawda .


Ale w Polsce kryzysu nie ma ...Kryzys nas ominął i to jest najważniejsze ...


Ktoś świadomie miesza wartością złotego W sierpniu zeszłego roku, za 1Euro płacono miedzy 3.20 3.35zł ,teraz jest już prawie 1zł więcej. Należało wtedy kupić dużą kwotę Euro, dziś byłby z tego zysk 1zł od każdego zakupionego Euro. Jaki bank da wam więcej na lokacie niż 10% w stosunku rocznym ? (...) Kto dobrze obserwuje kantory i oficjalne dane z NBP widzi, że złoty jest manewrowany z zewnątrz .


Spekula i tyle. Dziś specjalnie jp morgan wysłał info o zerowym wzroście pkb, żeby zarobić na baranach z Polski.


A kto do ciężkej ustala kurs walut. Skąd to się bierze i na ile jest wiarygodne, a nie spekulacyjne?


Monday, 19 January 2009

La Génération Perdue

"L'État est prêt à tout faire pour soutenir l'industrie automobile, 10% de la population active française".

Nicolas Sarkozy, Président de la Génération Perdue

Qu'est-ce que la prospérité? Qu'est-ce qui manquait aux Indiens d'Amérique du Nord avant l'arrivée des habitants de l'Europe de l'Ouest? Une chose est certaine: les Indiens ont assuré un niveau de vie suffisant (eau, nourriture, abris) à faible coût.

Dans cette ére de prospérité économique, en dépit du développement scientifique et de l'éducation massive, malgré l'invention de l'électricité et d'un moteur à combustion interne, de plus en plus de gens se posent la question "comment je vais payer mon loyer?" et "de quoi vais-je vivre?". L'Économie actuelle n'est pas en mesure de fournir de l'emploi au nombre croissant de citoyens, sans lequel les besoins fondamentaux - eau, nourriture, abris - ne sont pas atteignable.

Peu de gens se demandent pourquoi, peu de gens comprennent. Mon point de vue est le suivant. L'Économie est l'une des sciences les plus jeunes. Les moins approfondies et les moins bien compris. L'École classique d'économie est pleine de cadavres de ceux qui voulaient faire du thème de l'économie un ensemble de lois. Comme les lois sont invalides, l'économie ne veut pas fonctionner.

Voyons comment les vues courantes sur l'économie sont absurdes. La société veut que l'état sauve l'industrie automobile. L'État doit donc prendre à tout le monde. Le public est-il d'accord? Non! A la première occasion de l'augmentation des impôts ou d'autres problèmes financiers, le public protestera. Pour appeler de l'aide. Au détriment de qui? N'importe qui?

Grâce à cette spirale de longue durée, l'intervention d'état (de société) dans la forme de l'économie (dans la distribution d'énergie économique) nous place dans une situation où nous devons faire des choses surhumaines pour nous assurer une existence basique. Les gens ne semblent pas comprendre qu'ils passent la plupart de leur vie à réaliser un BUSINESS dont ils ne peuvent pas profiter.

- La course aux armements. Pas de frontières, pas de course.
- Médecine. Afin de te soucier de la surpopulation mondiale.
- Les banques en faillite. Pour que tu n'aies pas ta propre banque.
- Aide pour les pauvres. Si tu as les moyens, donne aux pauvres.
- Universités. Les bibliothèques n'ont pas besoin de professeurs.
- Pensions. L' épargne n'est pas en vogue.
- Police. Pour que tu ne blesses pas un cambrioleur. Pour que tu ne fasses pas du mal au voleur de millions.
- Les musées, les monuments. As-tu assez d'argent pour maintenir ce que tu n'as pas le temps de voir?
- Sénat, le gouvernement. Pour que quelqu'un soit maître de la situation.
- La Cour. Peux-tu te permettre un avocat? La loi?

Sunday, 11 January 2009

Pound Sterling

Pound supportive :

Short GBP positions have been very popular recently

Credit markets are temporarily thawing, allowing capital flows from the core (USD, YEN, Euro) further down the way (Pound, AUD, Canadian Dollar)

There is definitely more speculation on FX today, after stock and housing markets collapsed - it means price may easily overshoot to the upside (overblown correction)

British citizens have moved their assets into the Euro

British economy is stronger than Spanish, Irish or French economies; those focusing on UK problems overlook problems elswhere

Rumours have been heard that the United Kingdom can go bankrupt

So I would be cautious about shorting the Pound again. I would wait.

Despe906 takes on Barack Obama

"Why me?" Patrick Swayze asking. When he was on top, some were dying, silently. Was he thinking - "Why me?"

Mr Obama was elected and many wonder why him. My question is - why not him? America needs a nice president. Me, I am neither nice nor sober. I couldn't be a good president today. Just have a look.

Despe906 takes on Barack Obama

"We should have an open and honest discussion about this recovery plan in the days ahead."

Openly and honestly, you're not an economist, Mr Obama. You are a politician.

"I urge Congress to move as quickly as possible on behalf of the American people."

Are you emotional, Mr Obama? Panicking? At least, on somebody else's behalf.

"For every day we wait or point fingers or drag our feet, more Americans will lose their jobs."

Is this a cause and effect pattern? What did Congress do, when Americans were finding jobs?

"More families will lose their savings. More dreams will be deferred and denied. And our nation will sink deeper into a crisis that, at some point, we may not be able to reverse."

Look. I am drunk. But I can see clearly that you forsee the results of your actions. The problem is that the word 'inaction' has an inactive use in your presidential tool kit.

"If nothing is done, this recession could linger for years. The unemployment rate could reach double digits."

After everything is done, the depression will linger for a decade. The unofficial unemployment number will reach double digits.

"I understand that some might be skeptical of this plan. Our government has already spent a good deal of money, but we haven't yet seen that translate into more jobs or higher incomes or renewed confidence in our economy."

You do not understand why some are sceptical. You will see no deal of money translate positively into the economy. East of Alaska, they haven't yet seen government spending create prosperity either. Wait time : 10 decades.

"There is no doubt that the cost of this plan will be considerable. It will certainly add to the budget deficit in the short term. But equally certain are the consequences of doing too little or nothing at all, for that will lead to an even greater deficit of jobs, incomes and confidence in our economy."

There is no doubt the cost of this plan will be considerable. It will massively add to the budget deficit in the long term, but equally certain are events in case Congress does nothing. The difference is malinvestment will be liquidated, insolvent banks and industries will go bankrupt, those who had brains will emerge as new economical power. Something you can't allow to happen, can you?

Sunday, 4 January 2009

2009 - Prognozy

Co dostrzegam : dwie tendencje. Jeden obóz skupiony jest na planach ratunkowych. Większość popiera; uważa, że to jedyne wyjście z sytuacji. Mniejszość bije na alarm, wskazując na rosnące obciążenia fiskalne i ryzyko hiperinflacji. Drugi obóz wierzy w deflację i depresję. Wskazują na Japonię i lata 30 ubiegłego stulecia. Jest to obóz mniejszościowy, do którego się zaliczam.

Natomiast uważam, że rynki pójdą w kierunku, jakim go widzi grupa pierwsza.
1.Deflacja złamała rynek nieruchomości, surowców i akcji. Wszystkie klasy mocno wyprzedane.
2. Temat deflacji i delewarowania stanowczo się przyjął jako jeden z głównych wątków w szerokich mediach.
3. Nie słyszałem głosu o noworocznej hossie - toż to temat przewodni w grudniu, biorąc za wzór ostatnie 10 lat na rynkach papierów!
4. Analiza techniczna sprzyja zwyżce na indeksach. Ostatni dołek był inny niż poprzednie. Była gwałtowna huśtawka i duże obroty.
5. Analitycy, których cenię, nie wykluczają krótkoterminowej hossy.
6. Są już pierwsze sygnały. Ropa daje znaki życia, co odczułem pozytywnie na własnym portfelu. Indeksy giełd zachodnich wybiły się z konsolidacji. Choć spokojnie i bez entuzjazmu.
7. Większość podskórnie wierzy, że koniec roku może przynieść poprawę.
8. Pesymizm przez ostatnie 3 miesiące był wystarczająco silny, by się znudził. Poprzez czysty wpływ czasu, uwaga powinna się skupić na czymś nowym.

Jeżeli giełdy ruszą w górę, jest możliwy wzrost o ponad 20%. Ruch na giełdach rynków wschodzących, w tym polskiej, może być słabszy. Powróci strach przed inflacją. Wzrosną surowce, ceny detaliczne przestaną spadać. Kapitał pomału ruszy w świat, osłabiając dolara, jena i euro, a wzmacniając funta, dolara australijskiego, kanadyjskiego. Być może zatrzymana zostanie na dłużej dewaluacja walut egzotycznych, co do których należy nie mieć złudzeń : ucierpią najbardziej w perspektywie kilku lat.

W mediach zagości znajomy optymizm. Drugi obóz zostanie odesłany do separatki. Z czasem jednak, uważam, obóz pierwszy zderzy się z górą lodową faktów. Wzrośnie bezrobocie, gospodarki nie przestaną się kurczyć. Kolejne firmy upadną. Rządy nie będą nadążać z pompowaniem pieniędzy. Wtedy kierunek dokona zwrotu : obóz drugi powinien zagościć na dobre w kanałach informacji. Zanim odda trybunę, będzie już obozem większościowym.

Saturday, 3 January 2009

Paryż jest żywym naprzeciwko!

Grupy wzmocnić lub zniszczyć ich członków. Człowiek programu jest nieco bardziej rozbudowane. Jeden musi być ograniczona do połączenia ich głupi.

Jego Kaznodzieja, pan ratowania i jego szeregi rosną silne. Pani deflacji płaci rachunek I nalega, aby zapisać. Widzę pułapek zawartych okolice.

I posłał do piekła w wielu przypadkach, ma wrócić i podjąć wysokie ulicy życie. Coś trzeba pamiętać, że poziom cen nie należy prowadzić pojazdów percepcji.

Ty pokaż swój portfel, gdy znajduje się kobieta ładna. Jakie byłyby niewielkie znaczenie, biorąc pod uwagę portfel. Ma dwa rekordy, rozpoczęła perfum i chce moje zdjęcie łańcucha.
A Paryż jest żywym naprzeciwko!

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