Monster Monday

Normally, I look forward to big days and volatility. This time however, the market has become too big to trade, at least for me. Last Friday, I was trading 30 point retracements. On Monday, deal with 300 point reactions!
Of course, opportunity is there, so is the risk. If my stop loss size was 15 pips last time, why should I risk 100 points today? Risk aversion. Not only because of the size of the market, but mainly because of my broker's trading platform.

My spread betting broker was not reliable, although I am not complaining (it should  be expected on such days). I don’t remember day trading this kind of market range-wise, maybe except for the flash crash day in 2010.

At the opening, the DJIA was ‘unavailable’ for trading. Later, initially, the price was not tracking the market fluently anyway, only jumping by 20 or 30 points every 10 seconds. I decided not to take any of my setups.The additional risk was that my stop loss order would not be executed without negative slippage, or if I decided to close the trade, I couldn’t tell then if the market would be available for trading, or for how long unavailable!
But I was watching out of curiosity. At some point I decided to make a small scalp, but I had a lucky requote - the trade would go 50 points against me (I had no stop or profit orders in place). A few minutes later, I tried again and I got a fill. I placed the stop loss at break-even when the price was in my favour by 30 pips. Unfortunately, it got back to my opening level and I was out of position. I wanted only a “small” 100 pip scalp on a big day and thought that 30 pip distance would be safe for break-even exit order.

The market did go more than 100 pips higher from there, then reversed. I was ready to enter at the close of the second reaction candle, almost 300 points off peak (last reaction size was 300 points). I was ready and right to enter there....but my broker was not ready and the DJIA was "unavailable for trading", only later, 60 points higher, so I gave it up.
The market’s range got narrower, but it soon moved up again into fresh territory: while it was accelerating, I placed a trade and luckily got filled. It went against me by 6 pips only, I set the stop loss at break-even when the trade moved 30 points into positive territory. This time the price didn’t look back. My target was 100 points, but also I knew that each peak was coincidental with the 5m candle close, So I made sure I exited two seconds before the candle closed. Profit of 103 pips in 3.5 minutes.
What’s next for the Dow? This monster Monday is looking like a big reversal Monday, I doubt the market goes any lower. However, it is the biggest correction since 2011, so it may last a bit longer. Is it the end of the Bull? Of course not...I mean it is too early to tell that the Bear has begun. I am certain though that the volatility can only decrease from here!

Adam Michnik - pedofil i morderca dzieci

Internet aż się świeci od bombek na wiecznie zielonej michnikowej choince.
Dysydent i intelektualista. Redaktor naczelny. 

Syn żydokomunistycznego aparatczyka, wroga Polski, i brat żydokomunistycznego zbrodniarza. 

Jąkający się grubas o aspołecznym spojrzeniu i tłustych kłakach. 

Drukuje pseudointelektualne wywody pedofila Cohn-Bendita. 

 Sympatyzuje z żydowskim finansowym oszustem M. Chodorkowskim, popiera żydobanderowski rząd Ukrainy i nielegalne obalenie demokratycznie wybranego prezydenta Ukrainy.
Podżega do wojny, nazywając słowiańskiego bohatera Putina drugim Hitlerem, zresztą nic w tym oryginalnego, to samo bowiem czynią inni członkowie diaspory - Soros, Balcerowicz, Kaczyński.

Syjoniści wszystkich krajów łączcie się! Komintern nie umarł, Komintern wciąż żywy!
Eseista. Autorytet moralny. Patriotyzm jest jak rasizm. Sumienie Polski.

Z wyników wyszukiwarki czytamy o pedofilskich zapędach Adasia. Artykuł o rzekomych morderstwach popełnionych przez Adama Michnika znajduje się już na pierwszej stronie google.pl, oraz u samej góry drugiej strony wyników na google.co.uk.

Osobiście uważam, że Adam Michnik nie może dać się zaszczuć. On jest polski bohater narodowy. 

Powinien zaprosić brata Stefana do Polski, by ten sam oczyścił się z zarzutów. Powinien wyrzec się antypolskich bredni, które wyssał z żydowskim mlekiem matki. Powinien przeprosić za żydokomunistyczne korzenie i honorowo zrezygnować z funkcji redaktora naczelnego. Lub najlepiej wyprowadzić się do Izraela
i tam naciskać na rząd, by ten wypłacił odszkodowania za komunizm, zamordowanie carskiej rodziny Romanowów, za Żydów członków SS, Żydów kapo w niemieckich obozach zagłady, gdzie ginęli Polacy, za współpracę Żydów z zaborcami Polski. 

W przeciwnym razie, do historii przejdzie Adaś jako pedofil i morderca dzieci, mimo że dowody okazały się nieudolnie sfałszowane. PEDOFIL I MORDERCA DZIECI, jak to brzmi, Adam.

 Już ŻYDOBANDEROWIEC I PODŻEGACZ WOJENNY brzmi o niebo lepiej.

Volatility

When we look at these two intra-day DJIA charts from a distance, we see similar days : 8 subdrive range day on a Friday - last trading days of May 2014 and January 2015. On both days the range was bent close to the end of the session in the opposite direction to the initial impulse off open. When we look closer, we see the differences in volatility on these charts :

• In May, most subdrives were smaller than 30 points, all day’s range was 70 points

• Waiting for retracements over 10 points would get you nowhere

• Yesterday, the market travelled 70 points in just ten minutes, day's range 260 points

• Trading retracements lower than 30 points was not safe using conservative small stop

 The difference in the CBOE Volatility Index ($VIX) was 15 in May versus 21 yesterday. I am sure that VIX is measuring something, but is it of value for traders who live in the world or real price movement? VIX reached 30 points in mid October 2014, which was a peak not seen since 2011’s correction. There were two or three days of 340 points between open and close in October, but also ECB Thursday on January 22 was 360 point wide, January 6 - 320 points, January 13 - 420 points and the Dow’s range reached 300 points more than once in January beside that.VIX is not reflecting real price volatility. Sure, the market was moving last October, while it’s been sideways in January, but is VIX a volatility index or trendiness index?

I don’t believe in inflexible trading systems : based on points. You could attack reactions of 10 points with 10 point stop loss in November, but don’t try it in December. You may have taken profits of 20 points in November, but in January 20 point TP was a tactical mistake. How do I measure volatility myself? I count the points, therefore I don’t lose my sense of proportion. 

Euro and oil price declines, strength of USD and a blitz CHF move, more and more cracks in current global trade systems all contribute to higher volatility in stocks. While the ‘great recession’ that started in 2008 is gathering speed instead of coming to an end, we still cannot say when the Bull will end. The market is climbing the same wall of fear and worry year by year: fear of war, QE, ZIRP, debt, negative interest rates, stocks overvaluation, dollar collapse & so on. Is current volatility predicting a big bear market ahead? I think not, but time will tell.