Thursday, 7 July 2011

Oanda - Thievery Broker


Here came the day I stopped using Oanda forever. As a trader, you try to trust your broker, even when suspicious things happen. You try to play down critics of your own platform, you believe it's not that bad (hoping vainly your broker treats you better than other customers?). Then comes the moment it's OVER.
A long AUD/NZD trade hits stop loss at 5am, after a flash spike down to 1.2823. It happens, you think :

Out of curiosity though, you check the price at your other forex accounts. Then you check price data from the web. Amazingly, the lowest level you see everywhere else is : 1.2877



So you e-mail Oanda front desk:

Today, on one of my sub-accounts a long AUD/NZD position has hit stop loss level at 1.2831. The problem is the lowest level this pair traded today on my 2 other forex brokers accounts was 1.2877, check for yourself : www.ducascopy.com. Open AUD/NZD chart to see where was the price today. As your platform is the only to display this level of price I must say this was a system error to my detriment. Even if your spread was 35 points during news release - taken from your spread on Oanda website for Aud/Nzd for 5th of July - there is no way it could have reached my stop loss at 1.2831. Your spread, when the price was at 1.2877, must have been 90 points to reach my stop loss level!

After long 24 hours wait here comes the reply :

We have investigated your trade in question (ticket xxyy) as requested and found no error on the trade. Please note that OANDA is a Market Maker and our prices are determined by the rates we receive from our liquidity providers and our rates are not necessarily same or similar to the rates from other brokers. When your trade was closed by the stop loss, due to the news announcement released in Australia, our spreads on the AUD pairs were widened momentarily. Your long position was closed by the stop loss when the bid price on the market fell to 1.28312. At that moment, the ask price was 1.28382 making a spread of only 7 pips. During the period, the lowest price the bid went to was 1.28200.

This is incredible! There was no big 35 spread when the stop loss was hit, just the price was 50 pips off the market when it happened! Oanda - 1.2820, the market/other brokers - 1.2877.

Please note that OANDA does not trade against the clients nor benefit when they lose money on trades. OANDA hedges its exposure for trades made by clients by making corresponding trades with third-party banks. As a result, if you lose money on your OANDA trade, OANDA loses a corresponding amount to its third-party bank.

Oanda hedges its exposure, LOL. This is why during the busiest hours for AUD/NZD (Australasian session) on the most liquid market on earth - forex - there is 50pip difference from the spot market price! If your MM broker can be legally 50 pips off the market as their 'liquidity providers' dictate, this means it can do to your automatic exit and entry orders whatever they wish!

I am in the process of ending my relationship with Oanda. I've also promised them to write a review, so they lose more than they stole from me. Protect you money, there are many honest brokers around, even MM. Try a new platform and move on!

Tuesday, 14 June 2011

Derivatives trader am I

Profit days every day, stellar PnL ratio, one or two losses a month, great methods, growing size and confidence, where is the limit - you may wonder. Here comes the answer - there's no limit! Give me a single reason why this should stop, never lost my mind or control. Things can only grow.

Market is like an ocean, when you can swim, you won't drown and always catch something. Mind big waves and whales - you are smarter and more nimble than they. If you open the platform with kids joy knowing this day will be another great fun day - welcome to the land of trading.

GBP/USD in June. Entry, partial TP, exit TP, reentry, first partial profit, second PP, stop loss break even first trade, reentry. First partial profit, second partial profit, third partial profit. Now watch out, correction on the stock and commodities markets is about to finish which means - weakness of USD.

EUR/GBP in June. Euro has slightly better fundamentals than the pound but this moment - end of range was a signal to trade short. Entry, first PP, second PP, then shaken out because of early stop loss move to BE. Happens, but shouldn't really, I am too experienced for this.

CAD/CHF in June. CAD is fundamentally inferior to the Swiss franc, but after extreme strength must come some weakness, while CAD was weaker than it should fundamentally, so a great set up. Daily chart trading - buy and sell, buy and sell.
I have had some great trades in commodities - natgas and cocoa, but the platform charts don't show entry/exit points so won't attach any picture. Commodities are easier to trade than currencies, are more profitable and in a great bull market, so plenty of joy for traders.

Exchange paper for something that will not lose value. Land, copper nails, second hand Olympus OM manual lens or shiny metals. Bear in mind that there are many things which value evaporates faster than fiat money's - DVD's, brand new electronic goods, food and cars.

Sunday, 6 March 2011

'Many ways of looking at the rule'

Lessons Learned from Ben Bernanke's Policy Rule Discussion at the Senate

At yesterday's hearing before the Senate Banking Committee, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke talked about monetary policy rules in response to a series of questions by Senator Pat Toomey. First, the Chairman stated that the Taylor Rule calls for interest rates “way below zero” and that this justifies methods such as quantitative easing. This is puzzling because I have reported for months that the Taylor Rule (see 1993 paper) does not call for an interest rate below zero. Second, when Senator Toomey then asked if Taylor believed the Taylor Rule called for rates below zero, Chairman Bernanke didn’t answer directly, but instead claimed that in 1999 I preferred a different rule to the one I published in 1993; he then said that the 1999 rule gives a much different rate. Senator Toomey then pressed on and specifically said the Taylor Rule called for rates higher than we have now, at which point Chairman Bernanke changed tack and argued that there were other policy rules that call for below-zero interest rates.

John B. Taylor March 1, 2011
Full article here

Well, Mr Ben Shalom Bernanke, there are many ways of looking at your performance, but the general rule is that you don't argue with a Jewish fiancial terrorist, posing as an expert of the matter.
While the inflation floods the world, Mr Ben wants to practice some 'many' ways of looking at the rule. I.e. a hammer dropped doesn't fall, but grows in size, when you place your eyes between the drop point and the centre of the earth.

Thursday, 3 February 2011

Do You Hear Me? "Never" Again

To those who would bet against the euro, watch out for your money because we are fully determined to defend the euro.

Mrs (German Chancellor Angela) Merkel and I will never -- do you hear me, never -- let the euro fall.

French President Nicolas Sarkozy
on 27th Jan 2011


Da, Da, Mr Sarkozy, you better watch out for your money because you and Angela don't have enough to defend the euro. By the way, I thought that a weaker euro helps EU exports? Let me think...are you afraid of wide protests because of rising prices on the horizon instead?

Sunday, 8 August 2010

Wielki Szu


Maybe next time you should check your facts before you flap your gums. Michael Grant DID suffer a KO loss to Golota. There's nothing worse than a know it all that doesn't know shit.


Bombay Bob, eastsideboxing.com

My body magnetism stops watches on my wrist. A joke told can change the life of a man who was born evil then got down through labour of upbringing, although successful people managed to resist and remained evil. Body is at a mercy of mind : if the candle is green then buy, if red then sell. People are weak and dirty so they've got to look strong and clean. Most know it's as stupid as woman's priority in life which is comfort while you fell in love with a fake smile that attracts unhappy children looking weird when smile for the camera; all in all 10 pips a day can change one's life.

A day trade (order to open closed manually) and three scalp trades. Forex is usually not perfect for trend following so scalping especially during months like August is a perfect way to kill boredom.

Tuesday, 11 May 2010

Unhappy Man


In essence computers trading against computers decided at some point today to throw in the towel and not bid. Lovely, isn't it?

I have been waiting for this to happen and today it did. Supposedly, computer trading lowers volatility and bid/ask spreads for traders. Today we see that works until it doesn't.
By the way, this was not really a "black-swan" event. This was perfectly predictable although timing it was not. I have been discussing this scenario with a few friends for months.

Daily trading net revenue was $25 million or higher in all of the first quarter’s 63 trading days, New York-based Goldman Sachs reported in a filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission today. The firm reaped more than $100 million on 35 of the days, or more than half the time. Making $100 million a day for half the days in the quarter is quite a feat.
The only way I can possibly see that happening is if Goldman Sachs is front-running every "trade". If someone has another explanation, let's have it.

Mike Shedlock
globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Mike Shedlock is very unhappy because he lives in a world which is not right. The stock market defies the laws of Austrian School of Economics. The inflation is falling, although rising at the moment. 2010 had to be a year of big retracement, well...it's on the right track. And the bad banks are using computers for computer online trading.

A happy Mike's world would look like this:
Mike writes on his blog the stocks shouldn't rise because the economy looks very very bad. The investors and investment banks all read his blog so they refuse to buy stocks.
Mike writes on his blog the deflation should cause the prices to fall. The oil producers and farmers all read his blog so they lower their products prices right away, even if that means they will have no profit for the year.
Mike writes the computers shouldn't be used for computerised computer online trading. President Obama reads his blog so he announces the ban of computers. The banks refuse to use computers but keep the brainiest men in the trade, anyway they are as much good as computers.
Mike buys stocks and oil through his online trading platform (there must be exceptions) and writes on his blog: the economy looks good, the stocks should start to rise. The investors and banks are still skittish, but soon come to the same conclusion and the very big and real bull market begins. Mike now lives in an entirely happy world.

If someone has another explanation, let's have it.

The explanation is quite simple. You must be a real trader or investor who is better than the others - I assure you that Goldman Sachs have the very best.

Mike, you can be a trader, too. Here is how you start.
On S&P 1h chart whenever 20ma is heading lower and the price remains below it - sell, except when 3ma is heading higher towards 20ma, then wait till it turns south. Such simple strategy maybe won't provide you with all days in profit but you will surely make some money.

Sunday, 9 May 2010

Day trading for few chosen only


It makes no sense to give advice or teach how to trade - the most difficult job on the planet bar boxing or fighting the enemy on the front line. But here are some of my remarks and rules I follow in my technical approach. I day trade various markets, from General Dynamics to EUR/NOK, without paying attention to fundamentals. - Yes I consider myself a chartist.

-Every instrument and every time frame are different
-Do not try to trade too many markets, find the most suitable for you and use leverage
-Emotions are your enemy; yes be happy when you take profit, be sad when you lose, but entering trades out of excitement, anger or fear is a mistake
-Back test your method on a regular basis
-Hard work means nothing compared to good method
-Trade live as much as possible as opposed to entering trades and leaving them at the market's mercy
-Sell on extreme strength, buy on extreme weakness, otherwise NEVER trade against the trend
- Future probabilities =1, what's going on =2, past =3
-Always trade into wave along with the larger direction
-Trend reversals are rare and never bet you will catch it, you better go with the older trend instead
-Analyse your trades, eliminate the fault from the losers, develop your winners
-The stronger the move, the more you need to trade into its direction, you will surely make money before the wave reverses
-Create a method to lose money on your favourite instrument and back test it
-Adding to your winners is the most beautiful, difficult and most right thing to do
-Decrease weight on losing streak
-Skittishness doesn't pay
-Don't trade breakout in a range
-I am a good trader
-Take profit is good
-Orders to open are dangerous
-Bigger time frame is more important
-These tendencies should continue
-The most important area on the chart is the blank space to the right
-Remain confident, the opportunities will always be there
-Don't trade emotions or 'wish-waves', trade the real price action
-Never add to losers
-Market is like a woman, don't analyse it too much
-The biggest enemy of BBF CONT is a consolidation
-An error leads to emotional imbalance and further errors


As to my method (BBF CONT), it is quite simple - I buy when it goes up and sell when it goes down, which is not quite simple to do as the majority of schools, blogs and wannabe gurus teach the opposite because they all have an innate repulse to trend following for fear they would turn to be the last to buy or sell. Such a deep conviction is a result of lack of trading experience. As to charts, I use some on price indicators- Bollinger Bands 20.2 and moving averages (3,55,89), plus Stochastic and MACD below it.


USD/JPY - 5 min wave reversal

USD/JPY 1 hour bearish continuation

USD/JPY slide - add to your winners

Monday, 19 April 2010

I Am Innocent


John Singer Sargent - Orestes Pursued by the Furies

If we practice and eye for an eye and a tooth for a tooth, soon the whole world will be blind and toothless.
Johann Wolfgang Von Goethe

Thanks to this widespread idea we live in a world put in motion by wicked souls. Proud owners of brilliant teeth and bobbing eyes, just not to miss any opportunity.

George Soros, speaking at a meeting organized by The Economist, warns all those who are throwing their money into the equity pit, that "the financial world is on the wrong track and that we may be hurtling towards an even bigger boom and bust than in the credit crisis." Reuters reports that Soros said "the same strategy of borrowing and spending that had got us out of the Asian crisis could shunt us towards another crisis unless tough lessons are learned." We hope all those who are buying stocks have very tight stop loss triggers.
Anthony Cherniawski
thepracticalinvestor.com

The world of plenty. Complete foolish demagogic unbridled practical investor. When was the last time this non-trader did make any money? For a year he's been telling to trade counter wave, counter major wave and into minor corrections. Yet, he is not stopping. Besides now he warns and feels sorry for those who have bought (and made money). George Soros is hardly a respectable trader, to listen to what he says. He is a market manipulator for sure and exploits the fact the masses listen to what he says. He is a lousy and dirty insider trader first of all.

There is nobody left and I just don’t know how they are going to be replaced. I have no idea. Just the outpouring of grief is amazing. Just to see the coffin of the President you have to stand in a line five miles long. Every Pole feels the grief right now and every Pole is touched by this, and we have no idea how we will rebuild this.
Tomasz Adamek - about president Lech Kaczynski's death

Adamek's got caught by the stampede of grief and has forgiven his brother Jaroslaw Kaczynski called him a 'feckless Pole' only because he'd emigrated. He also has no idea who would replace them ( the dead), staring at 5 mile long queue of candidates. Fortunately, not every Pole has been caught in this baby boomers emotional blackmail.

I could spend all day in the kitchen or in the street. I could write anything or keep silence. I could make friends, learn to sing or lie down motionless till I blow up. In any case I will be innocent as there's no guilt in my heart or gilt in the market I couldn't trade.

Sunday, 11 April 2010

Sheep


Against the flow - the easiest way to lose money

-- The two red volume bars in the S&P 500 this week are not a good sign. It is a good indication that selling pressure is increasing in stocks. Although there are no losses as of yet, it appears that the urge to take profits after this recent rally is increasing, especially at the quarter end. Mutual fund managers generally cannot sell unless their clients do, but private money managers may. Is it time to look for the exits?

Anthony Cherniawski
thepracticalinvestor.com

Mr Cherniawski remains impractically wishful. As much as the broadening top formation which he mesmerizes innocent investors with. So that they keep away from stocks and never get a penny from the undeniable and healthy bull market. Of course, he still holds the same short position he was talking about in August. He is wealthy, so he can.

Against the flow - the easiest way to make money

Apply some logic:
1. Oanda makes money on spreads weather you loose or win. Why would they care what direction you trade?
2. The more you have, the more you trade, the more they make. Why would they want you to loose it all? Nobody is that dumb. You are their cow to milk. Killing you means no milk for them.

Now, seriously:
1. People who rant about 50 pips spreads - have no idea what NEWS and speculation means, nor have they any notion of high vs low liquidity.
2. People who rant about slippage - have no idea, what liquidity means in general.
3. People who rant about spikes - have no idea how easy it is to hunt down and domino day trader\'s SL positions.
4. People who loose money - will always blame the broker.
5. People who win - will always praise themselves.

And further more:
1. We are all sheep.
2. We all run where they tell us.
3. Fear and greed is installed in all of us.
5. We all act emotionally.
6. We do not have the means to change any of the above.

With this knowledge, big players (and a handful of smart, quiet sheep) shave you daily.

Now. Armed with this information. Can you outrun 51% of all sheep?
Statistically you cannot in the long run.
According to Lorenz (Butterfly effect) you can outrun 54% with reasonable knowledge, but not significantly more even with infinite knowledge.

Leave Oanda alone. They have nothing to do with your incapability to think.
mrt
forexreal.com

"We don't have the means to change the above."
Hey mrt, I am logically-dissectingly sceptical towards any general mania or environmental pressure. Also your rant won't make me run or scream. Do you have any slot and appropriate denomination for me in your sophisticated system of thought?

"Leave Oanda alone. They have nothing to do with your incapability to think."
I share the view of the many Oanda users that the platform becomes unfriendly to successful traders. To verify this though, you need to be successful first. One of my experiences goes like this: I was long USD/ZAR on Monday, 1st of November 2009, when the price early about 1-2 am spiked from 7.82 to 8.24. At that time, the platform became unresponsive, which's never happened before or after as these are not busy forex hours to say the least. I logged off and tried to log in again, but all I saw was 'server busy, please try again later'. When I eventually got logged in, 25% of my gains have gone and never came back. Leave Oanda alone, if you're capable to think.

A Broker Story


Hi there, This review is related to saxo and forexwebtrader together, I gave a scam to saxo because that decision was taken by saxo bank Here is the review Stay awaaaay from this group of mafia members called Forexwebtrader and god Father Saxo bank I had been with this company since Apr 2007 and when I was trading the news with their platform and when I found that there execution is good I decided to open another account with them. Last month after more than two month trading I asked to withdraw money from one of my account and then I got this e mail after one week Your request to withdraw funds from your account is still being processed by Finexo and its business partner - Saxo Bank. The reason for this delay is that we have reason to believe that exploitative strategies such as 'sniping' were employed in the account. For details please see section 4.12 of Finexo's General Business Terms. We shall reply to you shortly following further investigation. And I looked at this Section 4.12 and it says 4.12. Trading strategies aimed at exploiting errors in prices (commonly known as “sniping”) are not accepted by Finexo Global Investments Ltd.. If Finexo Global Investments Ltd., at its sole discretion in good faith, determines that Client is taking advantage or attempting to take advantage of such misquotes or is performing other forms of abusive trading, Finexo Global Investments Ltd. is entitled to take one or more of the following countermeasures: i Adjust the price spreads available to the Client; ii Restrict the Client’s access to streaming, instantly tradable quotes, including providing manual quotation only; iii Retrieve from the Client’s account any historic trading profits that have been gained through such abuse of liquidity – as determined by the bank in its sole discretion in good faith – at any time during the client relationship; and/or iv Terminate the client relationship immediately by giving written notice. If you look at this statement which is not related at all to the news trading and I already have a proof for almost 85% of the trading that I got the same price plus or minus 2 pips from other two platforms with the same prices as I got from forexwebtrader which proof that I never got a wrong prices like they mention in the statement and I got several messages in several cases says (price is too old. try again) which also give the evidence that there system never give a wrong price with me and I got around 50 trades within the last two month ….could anybody believe that any system give 50 wrong prices in 60 days??????? Then they should go out of business because they don’t deserve to be professional. And if you read the statement again you will realize that they just write the statement to be fogy and flexible to accuse anybody who gained profits with this accusation without giving any definition for sniping act means. Then I got this e mail After having investigated the situation of your two accounts, we, together with Saxo Bank, have established that the entire activity of your accounts (profits and losses) were acts of 'sniping'. We are therefore annulling all trades made in these accounts and returning the original deposit in accordance with your contract. Your accounts have now been frozen. The refunds will be made within the next few days and our Client Service Director will be in touch with you tomorrow. Elon Bezalely Finally they stole around $20,000 from me and $30,000 from my wife and we will go back after them all the way and we have all the proof of our profits and proof of right prices we got and I got also contact from another trader they stole also around $17,500 from his account also and we all will complain against Forexwebtrader BaFan in Germany and saxo bank in NFA in USA. And if we didn’t get our money we also going to sue them in British virgin island and I start to contact a lawyer there to be ready since they stole around $67,000 and it worth to go all the way for it. Finally I read the statement wrote by Michael Primus - Marketing Director - ForexWebTrader.com, Duesseldorf, Germany He wrote: This trader's deposit was returned to him in full - which we feel is more than fair” So I want to ask him…to refund the trader deposit in this case is consider for you as a more than fair…so what about if your company treat him with your just fair treatment not (more than fair)….what are you going to do with him and what do you used to do with other traders….take there fund also??????? My advice to all traders that go away as far as you can from this company and the god father Saxo bank because you will lose you money and time and you will get you original fund after more than month like me and maybe they will treat you next time with their fair treatment and take you fund. Note: if anybody wants to have a look at the statements and trades history reports I had with them, just send me an email to hesham_ha@yahoo.com and I’ll send it to you as an attachment.
hesham
forex-ratings.com

If you were looking for an honest broker, you would probably be put off by this comment posted in 2007. Generally, Saxo Bank is getting a poor feedback from (ex)-users of their services. Of course, it's easy to blame brokers for unsuccessful trading practices, but do you want to check if Saxo Bank is willing to give you your own money?

Sunday, 29 November 2009

Media


Pandemia nowej grypy może okazać się największą aferą korupcyjną naszych czasów. Do takiego wniosku doszli dziennikarze duńskiej gazety "Information", którzy przeprowadzili śledztwo dotyczące związków ekspertów medycznych Światowej Organizacji Zdrowia (WHO) z największymi firmami farmaceutycznymi.
Koncerny te zarabiają ogromne pieniądze na sprzedaży preparatów przeciwko grypie.
- Zaniepokojenie wywołuje fakt, że wielu naukowców, zasiadających w różnych komitetach WHO, przedstawia się jako niezależni eksperci, a w istocie figurują na liście płac farmaceutycznych gigantów - mówi profesor epidemiologii Tom Jefferson, badacz z Cochrane Center w Rzymie. Naukowiec podkreśla, że choć naturalne środki zaradcze przeciw grypie, jak higiena i częste mycie rąk, mogą być skuteczniejsze, to w dokumentach WHO wspomina się o tym zaledwie kilka razy, podczas gdy o szczepionkach kilkadziesiąt.
O śledztwie duńskich dziennikarzy pisze rosyjski dziennik "Nowye Izviestia". Gazeta wyjaśnia, że wielu naukowców pracujących w WHO, ukrywa fakt otrzymywania pieniędzy od światowych gigantów farmaceutycznych.

onet.pl

Jak pisałem wiele miesięcy temu, świńska grypa to młodsza siostra ptasiej grypy, którą przywołano do życia w 2003, w dobie poprzedniej recesji. Nie tylko pewne grupy zbijają niezłą kasę, ale również szczepionki są mocno podejrzane. Osoby po ataku serca 'muszą' się szczepić prewencyjnie. Wszystkie doniesienia o nowych przypadkach i śmierci pojawiają się regularnie, wszędzie i 'zgodnie'. Kampania pełną parą. Ludzie uwierzą; media wciąż mają siłę przekonywania, a nietypowych przypadków grypy nie braknie.


Hackers Prove Global Warming Is A Scam

It's now official. Much of the hype about global warming is nothing but a complete scam.
Thanks to hackers (or an insider) who broke into The University of East Anglia's Climatic Research Unit (CRU) and downloaded 156 megaybytes of data including extremely damaging emails, we now know that data supporting the global warming thesis was completely fabricated.

Mike Shedlock
21 November, 2009

I have read (officially) an officially published book 'State of Fear' (2004) by Michael Crichton which talks convincingly about the green terrorists and corrupted goverments. The leakage doesn't surprise me, but I doubt it will refrain people from going green or moreover questionnig the media as source of valuable information.

Wednesday, 29 July 2009

Perma-Bears Turn Bullish


If the market was indeed the vicious beast that I described in the beginning of this column, having hurt the bears so much, it now seems likely to go after the bulls …

The trap is set. A lack of follow through, a turn on a dime and a decline in line with fundamentals is all that remains.
The best way to accomplish that is for the S&P 500 index to rise above the June high of 956 and set up an even bigger bull trap!
In doing so, the charts would show an accomplished bottom formation signaling the rally to endure. Bulls would feel vindicated and start buying. And many of the remaining bears would be forced to retreat and abandon their short positions.
Thus the trap is set. The only thing remaining now is a lack of follow through, a turn on a dime and a decline in line with fundamentals.
Claus Vogt, Money and Markets
22 July 2009


Last Thursday, the S&P 500 index rose above its June high. In doing so, it’s showing an important bottoming formation: A huge head and shoulders bottom. Rising volume and strong market breadth confirmed the buy signal. Additional proof came from foreign markets showing more or less the same bullish pattern. And from the 200-day moving averages, which are in the process of turning around as well.
I take these signals seriously. They’re telling me to expect a continuation of the bear market rally off of the March lows.
I deem it probable now that this rally will have legs. And I expect the markets to keep rising and not come under serious pressure again until the second quarter of 2010.
Claus Vogt, Money and Markets
29 July 2009

It is rare to see. Money and Markets 'experts' used to lead the subscribers to a loss, there is a high probability they are wrong this time, too. I recall they advised to sell at all recent bottoms, in October, March and July. They have no respect for waves, sentiment, they only stick to their understanding of fundamentals. Following their advice seems to be one of the quickest ways to lose money.

Tuesday, 30 June 2009

Mass Misconceptions


Trading


The main reason why most investors and traders lose money instead of securing stable and considerable profits (which they expect) is lack of trading skills, knowledge and the awareness that such elements are necessary to generate income. All the trading services you may find on the web have one objective : to get money from those who lost money, need trading confidence or any real guidance. Of course, the subscribers get eventually fleeced.
The publishers and writers are scibomaniacs who often do not trade at all - have you ever thought : when do they do trading, posting so many newsletters, sometimes daily?
They are detached from the real price action thus they beam with perma-bull or perma-bear confidence, which although attractive by nature reduces the portfolios to a state beyond recovery. Browsing the Internet, a potential market participant will find all kind of fundamental bullshit, sometimes very sophisticated - using comparisons and blend of facts very appealing to one's imagination. Yes, fundamental long-term investors do make money. So, some are right at least for a period of time. This in no way detracts from the general points made above.
To make money one has to study the charts and acquire trading methods which bring consistent gains on daily, weekly or long-term basis. The throughout knowledge of technical analysis is an absolute must. Then the study of morphology of waves which helps to identify trend and choose adequate strategy. It may take years before the student becomes a successful trader who makes money whichever chart he or she gaze upon. Personally, I do not care about what media or 'experts' have to say. I do not rely on fundamentals at all. I often do follow news for fun or to spot some contrary indicators.

Great Train Robber

Biggs was part of the 15-strong gang who stole £2.6 million from a mail train in Buckinghamshire in 1963. Driver Jack Mills was struck over the head during the raid and never fully recovered before his death seven years later.
Biggs was jailed for 30 years for his part in the robbery but escaped after just 15 months of his sentence and fled to South America.
He handed himself into the authorities after 35 years on the run and is currently on remand in the hospital wing of Norwich Prison but his son has been campaigning for his relief because of his deteriorating health.
Bigg's solicitor Giovanni di Stefano said his client was "ecstatic" at the decision. "He knows about this and he's very pleased and his release is now just a few days away. It's a brand new home that he will be going to and his son will be only a half a mile away and will be able to visit every day."
Telegraph

The British taxpayers (except for some merciful unreasonable souls) don't agree to pay for this criminal's health care. Mr Biggs is an outlaw and should be treated as such. The British justice system has gone a long way and now it became a national service for "social inadequates". If I were Justice, I would give him a 'light tap' with an iron bar despite his condition, I would sentence his bred-with-stolen-money son to a prison-labor camp for life and cut off the tongue of his vicious solicitor.

Saturday, 20 June 2009

Non-Financial Times


Financial Times


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Smart Money vs Dumb Money

It seems individual investors are shoveling money into the market. Inflows into equity funds have been very strong over the past four weeks, according to Trim Tabs Investment Research. And that’s precisely why some pros are getting out. That right, the catalyst that some pros are using to short this market is --you, sucker.

Trimtabs president Charles Biderman is advising all his professional clients to turn entirely bearish on US stocks in part because you’re coming in. He says individuals pointed to the market’s bottom with record outflows in March and now they’re pointing to the top with hefty inflows. In other words, retail investors follow the heard and by the time they join the party it’s practically over. That makes you – and me -- a contrary indicator. "I happen to agree," adds Fast Money trader Guy Adami. "The retail money typically comes in late.”
But why can’t that be a positive? “They’ve always been wrong before,” says Biderman. “They invest with their eyes on the rear view mirror and their foot on the gas and wonder why they crash.” In fact, Biderman thinks we're all wrong. He says top insiders of public companies are not buying -- they’re selling – and as fast as they can.
Lee Brodie, 19 June 2009
CNBC


Master of Suckers Lee Brodie leads his troops against ugly insiders. The probable outcome will resemble Rocky movies - bumpy road towards dizzily clear skies.
Why? Suckers know they have to buy after a crash and when the recession is over. Those brainless insiders don't, they think they are smarter than that! Secondly : look at those handsome Fast Money guys, ideally fluent in thought and speech. Do not be afraid of an old Biderman. Thirdly, a smart money initiated sell-off will not last if only we 'suckers' don't panic.

Monday, 15 June 2009

Hurrah!



Recession is over. Therefore some weakness should be expected at throwing money into not so thriving companies, after which the bull market will resume ahead of the public debt fuelled economic recovery set for 2010. But don't assume I am right, although I may well be.
It is summertime and hailstorm in Manchester.

Złote proporcje


www.owg.pl

To pewnie nie koniec bańki spekulacyjnej na złocie. Przed nami jednak korekta, która może zepchnąć złoto poniżej 900 dolarów za uncję.

Friday, 1 May 2009

Sounds of the Universe


Depeche Mode have released their new album. Judging by what I saw on youtube prior to the release, I thought it would be their worst album. Then I heard the songs and think the album is very weak. It may be a commercial flop as it is even worse than the previous LP - Playing The Angel. Here I quote some comments from youtube that I liked, mine included.

When people start saying this album is better than Exciter and Playing The Angel, that goes to show you how bad it might be in their past 25 years. I might give it a chance against Exciter, but Playing the Angel had more thump and songs you knew you would go back to. This one, for me and speaking only for me, does not. Ghost and Oh Well the bonus tracks however, work for me.
fatograph

Wilder left largely because he wasn't getting much credit for what he brought to the band. He brought much of that classic musicality and "darkness" that Depeche Mode is known for. And he said there was a lot of tension in the band and relationships were deteriorating. I'm a longtime DM fan, and the music just wasn't as good after Wilder left. So many speak about Gore and Gahan (and Fletch, ha ha) but don't speak of how much Wilder brought to their sound. Since around 1997, it seems they either are imitating their old styles, and presenting weaker versions of those older songs, or making lightweight songs like this that just don't have the musical or emotional heft that the Wilder-era songs did.
mykalroze

Make sure you listen to Liquid and Subhuman. There is no room there for random barely processed sounds I can get on any synthesizer. DM minus AW had professional musicians for Ultra and to a lesser extent for Exciter. They finally have two new guys from PTA on. All these options are not cheaper than Alan and far below in terms of performance. SOTU - M&D finally took production into their hands (Fletch playing with video camera). Result - the worst album bar A Broken Frame. Since Alan left...those guys don't know 1 tenth of Alan's arsenal as to how to create and prioritize sounds, how to compose song sequences, how to record perfect sound structure without participation in the loudness war. Ultra is still decent, but an army of musicians took part.
despe906

After listening to the album, I feel I'm ready to say that of the 4 albums DM released since Alan left, Ultra is the better one. This one, although some interesting ideas and throwback good ol' DMelectro sound, is not living up the high standards they've set up for themselves. Alan departure has left a very noticeable dent into their song making process and the essence of what DM was is gone since Alan left. Their work now seems sub par compared to their previous masterpieces. The last good song that Martin sang was Home from Ultra, after that, I don't know, it feels that they have lost their touch. Not impressed at all, and I'm a life-long DM fan.
willyjoel

Exciter was disappointing. Dull and under produced. Song sequences not developed at all - The Sweetest Condition, Breathe. Melodies became flat, sound uninspired. PTA is a recording disaster. Sound dynamics not only get smashed, but at this point it was the worst DM sound. Speak&Spell sound, although minimalist, was at least clear and functional. Random sounds defying basic principles of sound space (layers of backgrounds) don't let me enjoy PTE. I had a weird feeling when SOFAD cd was released. What I think now, Alan's role in production was diminished...Martin tried to be more artistically involved, Dave started to shout instead of singing while Alan became a drummer.
despe906

Actually Wilder co-produced "SOFAD" with Flood.. (Wilder learned to play a drum-kit while the album was being recorded..) "SOFAD" also features some of Gahan's and Gore's best vocals on any one DM album...ie Condemnation, One Caress
.
tekbike

ALAN COME BACK FOR THE FUCK 'S SAKE
alanwilder81

I just realized what this song reminds me of: Smashing Pumpkins. Take The Cardigans + Smashing Pumpkins on sleeping pills and you'll have "In Sympathy".
"Peace" sounds like a mix of Kraftwerk at their best and Erasure at their worst, with a little bit of The Beatles on the side.
partyfears2012


Depeche Mode in their own eyes

Dave Gahan, 2003 : "Martin wouldn't acknowledge that Alan contributed incredibly much to Martin's songs. And now I think you can easily say Alan's input is missed. I actually think that even Martin would admit that today. And that is something he probably ought to call and tell Alan after all these years. He would definitely appreciate it."

Dave Gahan on Exciter's production :"Our producer on 'Exciter', Mark Bell, said that he really wouldn't make the entire album for us. So then i had to tell him some news: "Yes you f'u'c'king are!". And then he just pulled up his sleeves and went to work with the computer and Martin would look him over the shoulder and mumble "o.k."

Alan Wilder about DM : "Depeche Mode, these days, is essentially a Martin Gore solo project with Dave singing - it is bound to sound different and perhaps people just miss the translation onto record of 'band interaction' / 'chemistry' / 'tension' - call it what you will." "I still feel remixes are undertaken for the wrong reasons - as marketing tools - and that sours their effect for me."


Alan Wilder on the volume war, 2008 :

"We live in a world of technology - exponentially increasing breakthroughs in all things scientific. So fast that we can't even keep up with it. So why is it that the audio quality of music is degenerating? Music 'sounds' worse. We have stopped listening, we don't have time. We only have time to be smacked in the face by the loudest, most attention-grabbing blast of souped-up noise imaginable until ear fatigue sets in and the desire to 'change the record' takes over. Why are the adverts on TV twice the volume of the regular broadcasts?
It's the only way to get our attention in the VOLUME WAR.

In recent years, a revolution in processing technology has instigated a change in the way albums are mastered. In order to compete, A&R men, producers, even the artists are demanding that mastering engineers, via digital compression, crank up the level so high that all dynamic range is callously sacrificed.

(Compression essentially increases the volume of the quieter elements within a mix while holding steady the peaks of the louder parts)

The effect of excessive compression is to obscure sonic detail and rob music of its emotional power leaving listeners strangely unmoved. In fact, the ear naturally compresses high volume blasts to protect itself - this is why we associate compression with level. Our sophisticated human brains have evolved to pay particular attention to any loud noise, so initially, compressed sounds seem more exciting. It is short lived. After a few minutes, research shows, constant volume grows tiresome and fatiguing.

True excitement comes from variation in rhythm, tone, pitch and a wide range of dynamics which in turn provides space and warmth - something you're unlikely to find in much of today's rock/pop music. If you want a good example, listen to The Arctic Monkeys 'I Bet You Look Good on the Dance Floor' for a bombardment of the most unsubtle, one-dimensional noise."

Thursday, 30 April 2009

Koniec kwietnia


Nie wierzę w za kilkaset lat w muzyce zwanej rozrywkową (po prawdzie, każda jest rozrywkową, nawet mszalna). Bagaż melodii do poznania...już dziś nie sposób usłyszeć wszystkiego, co warte. Choć człowiek zna tylko jeden kierunek - więcej, szybciej i lepiej, to ziemia jest ziemią i inne prawo na niej panuje.

Świńska grypa nie jest zagrożeniem
. Zwykła ludzka grypa zabija tysiące ludzi rocznie i nikt nie panikuje. Media mają swoje interesy, żeby dmuchać w temat do czerwoności. Jak zakończyła się saga z ptasią grypą? Jedno jest pewne - zaczęła się w dobie kryzysu ekonomicznego, w 2003.

Zgodnie z moimi przewidywaniami okazało się, że Kubica w BMW to droga donikąd. Miły akcent, że prowadzi w rywalizacji 'zapytaj eksperta'. Nie sądzę, żeby 'ulepszenia' w Hiszpanii doprowadziły do rewolucji w tabeli punktowej. Natomiast myślę, że Ferrari pokaże nowe oblicze.

Pamiętaj chemiku młody - na ziemi nie ma wiedzy neutralnej. Każdy atom logiki pływa w morzu funkcji mniej lub bardziej nadętej manii. Ostatnio czytałem na pewnym blogu, że świat się wali, a ocaleniem świata będą Chiny. Autor blogu zapewne nigdy nie był w Chinach, ani nie zna osobiście żadnego Chińczyka.

A wiedza do niczego mi nie jest potrzebna. Gdy wszystko skończy się jak myślałem, wsyp mnie do ziemi, skąd przyjechałem.

Friday, 27 March 2009

Sul progresso


Popularny serwis poświęcony Formule 1, planet-F1.com przewiduje jak potoczą się losy rywalizacji o mistrzostwo w sezonie 2009. Eksperci typują polskiego kierowcę BMW Sauber Roberta Kubicę jako głównego kandydata do tytułu.
Onet.pl

Zapomnijta ludzie w 2009 o Kubicy. BMW Sauber ma problem. Kubica dostał nakaz wyrażania się pozytywnie o zespole. I powiedział - "jest zabawnie". W Australii będzie najwyżej piąty, lub nie ukończy wyścigu.

US Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner shocked global markets by revealing that Washington is "quite open" to Chinese proposals for the gradual development of a global reserve currency run by the International Monetary Fund.
Telegraph

World currency is coming. The scary thing is the majority of global population will embrace it with optimism. Those opposed will be eliminated. There are too many weapons in the central bankers arsenal. On the other hand, only a slight percentage of humans question central banking.

Stock markets in Asia climbed for a fifth day, helped by banking and mining shares, after the Federal Reserve’s surprise decision to buy $300bn (£210bn) of Treasuries increased hopes that economic growth will revive.
Telegraph

I was surprised so many experts I respect called the bottom. The charts, however, say nothing about the trend reversal. Before the end of this economic carnage we will see indices at deeper lows. I think. I am not always right. Interestingly, those who scream the loudest, scream inflation and hyperinflation as well.

Grâce à ces mesures, en cinq ans, nous pouvons atteindre le plein emploi, c’est à-dire un chômage inférieur à 5% et un emploi stable à temps complet pour tous. C’est de cette manière que nous pourrons vraiment réduire la pauvreté, l’exclusion et la précarité.
Nicolas Sarcozy, 2007

On sait quelles mesures. Comme la cause économique du chômage est le progrès technique et l'évolution de la productivité, il suffit de ralentir le progrès et de rabaisser la productivité. Une petite consolation - dans la quête du pire le socialisme français est facilement surpassé par : l’art du discours.

Tuesday, 24 March 2009

Have Faith


I feel good. I am fearless. Women love me. I do not know. Know what? Who knows.

You may think beliefs, thoughts and sensual reflection of the reality are at the centre of you. This is not true. The centre is your Heart.

You may think you have always worked hard so you deserve a small mercy of Justice. You have wasted your life working hard to no effect.

You are the only person whom you can trust. So why are you the person thought to be by those whom you cannot trust? Have you ever thought you were denied all your life?

I feel good. I can bear the pain. I see the future which is no good.

"I write and leave behind me this letter at Saint Petersburg. I feel that I shall leave life before January 1. I wish to make known to the Russian people, to Papa, to the Russian Mother and to the Children, to the land of Russia, what they must understand. If I am killed by common assassins, and especially by my brothers the Russian peasants, you, Tsar of Russia, will have nothing to fear for your children, they will reign for hundreds of years in Russia. But if I am murdered by boyars, nobles, and if they shed my blood, their hands will remain soiled with my blood, for twenty-five years they will not wash their hands from my blood. They will leave Russia. Brothers will kill brothers, and they will kill each other and hate each other, and for twenty-five years there will be no nobles in the country. Tsar of the land of Russia, if you hear the sound of the bell which will tell you that Grigori has been killed, you must know this: if it was your relations who have wrought my death, then no one in the family, that is to say, none of your children or relations, will remain alive for more than two years. They will be killed by the Russian people. I go, and I feel in me the divine command to tell the Russian Tsar how he must live if I have disappeared. You must reflect and act prudently. Think of your safety and tell your relations that I have paid for them with my blood. I shall be killed. I am no longer among the living. Pray, pray, be strong, think of your blessed family. -Grigori"

Some say this letter is not authentic. Some have a ready explanation for every controversy surrounding Rasputin. However, we must conclude there is more mystery about him than anything else. Facts no one can deny : this guy was there. Killed a few months before the bloodiest revolutions. Urging Russia to sign a peace treaty with Germany. Holding sway over the most powerful family in Russia. Being probably the only man able to prevent the revolution, death of millions and 100 years of oppression that ensued.