KONTRA

Trend Following and Price Choppiness

2011-10-23T23:57:00.009+01:00

Choppiness of Price Action

There are times it suffices to enter trades into the direction of price flow to make money (by taking profit or trailing the stop) regardless of indicators or patterns the price may paint. That's the rule of trendiness - at whatever point you enter, it's more probable the price will do what it's been doing than to reverse. At times like this, any trend following method will work: break-out systems, continuation systems, any kind of moving average crossover or swing systems. It looks hilariously easy - enter and take profit, in the rare case the price reverses, take a small loss. But what looks more hilarious is how traders get quickly used to these conditions, build expert advisors based on them, create rules and invincible methods which are soon about to die, as the price action adopts a choppy character.

Over the past few decades, price trendiness in the markets has been steadily decreasing, while the choppiness of the price has increased. The main reason for this is that the markets are more liquid; world's financial sector is at its peak, markets have now global character. There are more brokers and traders than before, more time frames are traded - all this is underpinned by the computerisation of the trade. Think about quantity: two voices can be clear and their sound dynamics very powerful. Two hundred voices produce more noise and sound dynamics are flatter. However they try, they will never adopt tunes as one voice.

What is choppiness? It's not volatility; it has nothing to do with ATR readings. It's not the direction of the market; market may go down, go up or sideways, while price may be linear or choppy regardless. Choppiness is the ability of the price to overlap itself. Interestingly and significantly, now when the trend is rarer, most common and popular indicators evolve around trends and swings : RSI, Stochastic, Macd, Zigzag. All brokers make them available. Now when understanding the price choppiness becomes the key to beat the price action, adequate indicators are as rare as a success without breaking the law and committing crime. Probably the best use for today's technical analysis was before it became popular, which was a few decades ago.

Choppy Markets Trading

My favourite indicator to measure the choppiness of the price is Choppiness Index developed by E. W. Dreiss. It's downloadable from the web and easy to install on platforms which support custom indicators. Although indicators are useful, everything they indicate is already in the price. Also, using Choppiness Index one becomes familiar enough to realise what it measures and to quickly involuntarily calculate it without looking at the indicator window. Anybody can roughly measure the degree of price overlapping just by looking at the price readings, the result may be more precise than any indicator. The key is to be aware and to pay attention.

MA crossovers are very popular swing methods which won't work in choppy markets. Some will give very nasty signals, some will keep losses in check, some may give moderate results. The key is to stop using those methods in choppy conditions. Don't count on a change, wait for the change to come. The choppiness of price vary throughout different time frames. Hourly and daily charts are still easy to play trend following. 15m are difficult at times, especially in currencies. 1m charts became impossible to trade positively without a filter, as the market oscillate between choppy waves or ranges and fine 'one line' trends with a few counter waves. This is probably why many small time frame traders moved to larger formats as their results worsened.

The chart above shows trading 1m DJ ma crossover (5ema and 20ema) using Choppiness Index as a filter. The crossover is not valid when CI 14 is above 44 and flat, valid when CI 14 approaches 44 from above or is below - pointing down. Also the crossover becomes valid when CI gets 'friendly' shortly (1-2 candles) after the crossover : I believe one could trade 1m DJ by entering into the direction of price every time CI 14 hits 44 from above.

Trading Rules 2

2011-09-03T16:14:00.010+01:00

Rules to follow combine market laws and trading preferred actions into guidelines which help a trader not to lose the correct trajectory in difficult conditions. Or to get back into the trading routine after things have gone wrong. Trading is not a science, office duties or production line. It's more like a sport, where good overall condition is needed, concentration, ability to cope with stress, loss, misfortune or vicious fate.
Rules grow, get modified and are created on the way, because trading ability is a set of skills which requires constant practice, endless learning and attention. This is why many of my trading rules of 2010 have become so obvious and so incorporated into my methods and beliefs that they are no longer guidelines. Like in one's life, you must first set a rule not to put your hand into the fire, not to trust strangers or to brake before the obstacle. Then it becomes an unaware pattern which you don't need to describe or read up every morning.
Your current trading rules must be with you every day because they are somehow new concepts, contrary to your old beliefs or habits. They are your present steps and advice, helping you with current tasks. So you may even record them on a dictaphone and listen to them over and over while trading.
There are so many types of traders that there are human characters. Although you may find similarities in the way we operate, our goals and ways of realising plans are so different. Also a trader won't set a new rule before he perceives a new pattern, a market or his behaviour charecteristic which he wasn't aware of before.
Here come my rules of 2011

Don't let the mainstream media influence your judgement, inspire greed or fear in you
Inner voices and guarding angel hints are worth as much as a coin toss
Method development capabilities are a part of traders arsenal
Time is a healer
Other traders have problems I don't have and never will
Overconfidence is as bad as lack of confidence
Reverse the tendency of avoiding easy markets and jumping into most difficult ones
Respect yourself for the things you're doing and problems you've overcome
Market is a force which you cannot rule, you may only subordinate yourself
'Dividend' investing is a great thing
Give it time, patience will make time your asset
Time is your friend and ally; markets have no choice - they must move in time
Market is like an ocean, if you can swim, you will always catch something
Rest and days away are a good thing
Precious metals and energies : production cost goes up with price and demand
Always have predefined stop loss and exit strategy
This is not secular bull, sovereign default risk means 2008 may be back market wise
Never catch the low, it simply doesn't pay
To go with the main wave adding to positions is something I must learn in 2011
Exterminate counter main wave trades and 'its too late to go with the flow' talk
Don't add size and frequency when losing; stop or slow down instead
SJZ (steroid jig-saw z-day) classic ProTD doesn't work, despite 300 point daily range
Don't force the market to pay you for your own mistakes
Follow your plan, don't gamble
Trader must be consistent, not intelligent
You're not there to show the market who you are, to make it play by your rules
20ft mega signal, universal for all time frames
Shaft range, evolving around the main market profile line
Don't lose concentration because of over trading or sloppiness
You make progress every day
Obstacles : there are many ways to overcome them all
Don't criticize yourself for what you do, game you're at is most difficult
See the price action as it is, not as you believe it is
Respect the market, be submissive and take what it gives
Aggressiveness means lack of respect, hyperactivity and frustration
Market is not a person who acts against you, it is a soulless and brainless force
Nobody knows what the market will do
Eliminate wrong trading modes:

Too Beautiful to be True mode - avoiding easy and super profitable markets for fear you will be punished for greed and undeserved profit for not working much.
Frustration mode - aggressive and risky set ups to get back the loss.
Revenge on the Market mode - aggressive and risky set ups to punish the market for your misfortunes.
Sloppy mode - feel good state, aversion to risk. You don't want to trade, if you do, you choose not a good signal and have tendency to exit bad.
To Make Some Money Only mode - false modesty which means sloppiness in real terms and switch to 'Frustration' if you happen not to make some money.
Catch the Trend mode - biased and emotional market approach, you may not see the real price action and ignore proper signals, choosing not existing ones.
Jump into Water mode - a powerful feeling it will be your day and time to play big, regardless of what the market does and the fact that your feeling is based on nothing...
Paralysis mode - fear of any action and market exposure. You will look for any pretext not to trade, you feel deeply the market will beat you.

because you're there to take the right decisions in reaction to what the market is now

Aware Desautomatisation of Unaware Automated Processes

2011-08-26T07:37:00.032+01:00

You walk, but you don't realise the way you move. You raise your voice (unconsciously), which you notice after somebody else tells you. You wake up and without thinking much, you get into the groove of daily routine, which happened without you - one would say instead of living, you "are lived by you."
Or you are alert, self-aware, concentrated on a certain aspect of your person i.e. "am I a fair person?", "am I likable?," "am I respected as I should?", going through circles of thoughts which, fully automated for the sake of their function, are a spontaneous response to larger automatic modes of your operation as a human. Firstly, you've been programmed to maintain a certain level of human quality, especially its face value which lies in the judgement of others. Secondly, your status must have been under pressure, from internal or external factors, otherwise your wouldn't care. Thirdly, you're an analyst and a thinker: this trait was given to you without your knowledge, merit or decision. Thus, being "alert, self-aware, concentrated on an aspect" is paradoxically contrary to self-awareness, concentration as a complete control and management of your behaviour, flow of thoughts, modes you're in.
I acknowledge that I am a self-moving being, controlling maybe 30% of all my processes of speech, emotion, muscle tension and thought flows, when I try to focus on my person, controlling maybe 5% of them, when I am in a "cruising mode".

Is the automatisation, unawareness of processes, unawareness of their automated structure a flaw in the human or animal nature? Not at all! It's the law that underpins our existence. Buddha, a human who once had enjoyed piece of mind and emotions, state of being blessed by lack of care, created a religion, claiming he found the state of being closest to God. Nirvana is a state where all automated thought, followed by emotion and a body reaction has come to a stop. All you can feel is freedom and pure joy of existing. Buddha was only human and his intelligence managed to describe the state and conditions around to get in or lose it. What he didn't get is that the description of the case, as well as the means of meditation to get into nirvana are not a tool set for a sustainable nirvana or most importantly a better life. It's like listening to a music which generates instant pleasure inside you; it comes and goes quickly without a meaningful trace. Moreover, I argue, it may have a negative effect on a human, as its interference into your automatic life's functions may distort them and lead to an unwanted exposure. Meditation, drugs or anything which generates a 'feel good' by suppressing or breaking your modus operandi can lead to seclusion, madness or self-destruction. It may sound crazy to hear that nirvana is bad thing. Please note, it's not particularly bad in itself, but the way of getting into heaven can eventually lead to hell.
Automatisation it's an attribute that is good in itself! It helps us to maintain the level of high activity without the effort of performing analysis every time you move your finger. Thanks to unaware automatism, you can preserve behaviours and beliefs. By allowing the scripts to run in the background, you can focus your attention on current tasks which require instant analysis. For example : is this pool small enough to jump over? Is this umbrella suitable for today's wind? You don't analyse why you meet that girl. To be honest, you don't have to, you've been conditioned to like this type, to meet her this way, to speak to her that way. You are lived by yourself and shouldn't destroy the process.

Contention point of this essay, however, is to help an individual to carry an aware desautomatisation of unaware processes in order to perform aware actions. Why? Because we live in a civilisation which produces people like ducks, stuffing into them 'useful' garbage through all channels: education, ubiquitous propaganda, things you consume and job you're required to do. 2000 years ago, there was Roman civilisation, people were produced like ducks, set to carry in them certain truths, to comply with a type of beauty, to abide to 'eternal' rules. There is nothing left now, except useless ruins and wasted lives of believers.
If you don't fully understand yourself, if you are doing things you don't like, if you're not the person you mean to be, if your body and emotions play tricks to you, you should strive to stop the automatism of your acts. You can eliminate wrong habits, stress, personality flaws and even improve the health of your body. You can implant qualities you want : detachment from reality, energy, particular perception of things or sens of humour.

Aware reconstruction through desautomatisation can be performed in three simple steps:
Slow down now, whatever you do. By stretching the matter, you will perceive each particle of the process: thought which generates emotion, emotion which generates belief, beliefs setting the mode. You will notice areas of you focus (why them?), the hurry (what is the cause?), your immediate goal (does your frustration mean to do harm, to teach them lesson, to show your vulnerability or to simply that you give up?). You're getting into questioning your operations which will lead to a negation : you're not stupid, therefore your deeper self will quickly understand that what you were doing reflexively was wrong.
Step two : Negation will lead to a stop. Your mechanical body movement will stop. Muscle tension will ease, eyes will open looking for information, you'll feel amazed and surprisingly empty. Your mind will try to perform a kind of testing, i.e. stupid idea, flush of argument to see how your background appliances respond. There will be no response! Your body may try to move on its own a bit. A kick in the air, shake of head, you may swoop to the ground and look eyes wide open. This state may cause a short spell of euphoria, as it would feel like on a different planet! Your beliefs were wrong, there is no fear, no need of being down on you. All you were 20 minutes ago doesn't matter anymore.
Step three : start an aware action. Decide the way. Why not differently? After completion, your next step was to yield. What is your preferred action now? To walk past? To skip guilt thing because it's not the point? To act as if you were there before? You're a creature which learns new things quickly and automatisation of new behavioural findings is your nature. Do things you decide to do. Next time, even when you wake up semi-conscious, your background will ask you to decide which set of functions to authorise. Do you start the day by going through all your misfortunes, or you follow the decision not to engage in activity which causes misfortune 90% of the time? Do you go for a ride on a rainy day? (because 20 years ago you decided that weather is not an issue for a man who will survive the harshest). Or you wait for 2 hours for the sun to come out, as you decided yesterday? (because it's practical and there's nothing wrong to it). Do you wear a fake smile? (because otherwise all say you look miserable). Or you cut off stupid remarks and search where lies the reason why you are unhappy? (Maybe the reason is just those stupid remarks? Are you the only person around to tolerate this and those assholes need to give vent onto anybody? Or are you the only person around to easily get offended, while the words you speak are no sweets whatsoever?).
There is no step four, which should be about the preservation of decision upon using desautomatisation of unaware automated processes to help you achieve your goal. Consistent programme seems to have no sens and surely would turn one into a nervous control freak! Once an action is performed, habit will follow. Fight back once. Overcome fear once. Once and consciously. Next time your old involuntary reaction will be there at hand along with the new pattern, asking you to choose. Your new processes will stay with you, will always remain deep in your mind.

Oanda - Thievery Broker

2011-07-07T01:14:00.011+01:00

Here came the day I stopped using Oanda forever. As a trader, you try to trust your broker, even when suspicious things happen. You try to play down critics of your own platform, you believe it's not that bad (hoping vainly your broker treats you better than other customers?). Then comes the moment it's OVER.
A long AUD/NZD trade hits stop loss at 5am, after a flash spike down to 1.2823. It happens, you think :

Out of curiosity though, you check the price at your other forex accounts. Then you check price data from the web. Amazingly, the lowest level you see everywhere else is : 1.2877

So you e-mail Oanda front desk:

Today, on one of my sub-accounts a long AUD/NZD position has hit stop loss level at 1.2831. The problem is the lowest level this pair traded today on my 2 other forex brokers accounts was 1.2877, check for yourself : www.ducascopy.com. Open AUD/NZD chart to see where was the price today. As your platform is the only to display this level of price I must say this was a system error to my detriment. Even if your spread was 35 points during news release - taken from your spread on Oanda website for Aud/Nzd for 5th of July - there is no way it could have reached my stop loss at 1.2831. Your spread, when the price was at 1.2877, must have been 90 points to reach my stop loss level!

After long 24 hours wait here comes the reply :

We have investigated your trade in question (ticket xxyy) as requested and found no error on the trade. Please note that OANDA is a Market Maker and our prices are determined by the rates we receive from our liquidity providers and our rates are not necessarily same or similar to the rates from other brokers. When your trade was closed by the stop loss, due to the news announcement released in Australia, our spreads on the AUD pairs were widened momentarily. Your long position was closed by the stop loss when the bid price on the market fell to 1.28312. At that moment, the ask price was 1.28382 making a spread of only 7 pips. During the period, the lowest price the bid went to was 1.28200.

This is incredible! There was no big 35 spread when the stop loss was hit, just the price was 50 pips off the market when it happened! Oanda - 1.2820, the market/other brokers - 1.2877.

Please note that OANDA does not trade against the clients nor benefit when they lose money on trades. OANDA hedges its exposure for trades made by clients by making corresponding trades with third-party banks. As a result, if you lose money on your OANDA trade, OANDA loses a corresponding amount to its third-party bank.

Oanda hedges its exposure, LOL. This is why during the busiest hours for AUD/NZD (Australasian session) on the most liquid market on earth - forex - there is 50pip difference from the spot market price! If your MM broker can be legally 50 pips off the market as their 'liquidity providers' dictate, this means it can do to your automatic exit and entry orders whatever they wish!

I am in the process of ending my relationship with Oanda. I've also promised them to write a review, so they lose more than they stole from me. Protect you money, there are many honest brokers around, even MM. Try a new platform and move on!

Derivatives trader am I

2011-06-14T22:21:00.010+01:00

Profit days every day, stellar PnL ratio, one or two losses a month, great methods, growing size and confidence, where is the limit - you may wonder. Here comes the answer - there's no limit! Give me a single reason why this should stop, never lost my mind or control. Things can only grow.

Market is like an ocean, when you can swim, you won't drown and always catch something. Mind big waves and whales - you are smarter and more nimble than they. If you open the platform with kids joy knowing this day will be another great fun day - welcome to the land of trading.

GBP/USD in June. Entry, partial TP, exit TP, reentry, first partial profit, second PP, stop loss break even first trade, reentry. First partial profit, second partial profit, third partial profit. Now watch out, correction on the stock and commodities markets is about to finish which means - weakness of USD.

EUR/GBP in June. Euro has slightly better fundamentals than the pound but this moment - end of range was a signal to trade short. Entry, first PP, second PP, then shaken out because of early stop loss move to BE. Happens, but shouldn't really, I am too experienced for this.

CAD/CHF in June. CAD is fundamentally inferior to the Swiss franc, but after extreme strength must come some weakness, while CAD was weaker than it should fundamentally, so a great set up. Daily chart trading - buy and sell, buy and sell.

I have had some great trades in commodities - natgas and cocoa, but the platform charts don't show entry/exit points so won't attach any picture. Commodities are easier to trade than currencies, are more profitable and in a great bull market, so plenty of joy for traders.

Exchange paper for something that will not lose value. Land, copper nails, second hand Olympus OM manual lens or shiny metals. Bear in mind that there are many things which value evaporates faster than fiat money's - DVD's, brand new electronic goods, food and cars.

'Many ways of looking at the rule'

2011-03-06T10:27:00.009Z

Lessons Learned from Ben Bernanke's Policy Rule Discussion at the Senate

At yesterday's hearing before the Senate Banking Committee, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke talked about monetary policy rules in response to a series of questions by Senator Pat Toomey. First, the Chairman stated that the Taylor Rule calls for interest rates “way below zero” and that this justifies methods such as quantitative easing. This is puzzling because I have reported for months that the Taylor Rule (see 1993 paper) does not call for an interest rate below zero. Second, when Senator Toomey then asked if Taylor believed the Taylor Rule called for rates below zero, Chairman Bernanke didn’t answer directly, but instead claimed that in 1999 I preferred a different rule to the one I published in 1993; he then said that the 1999 rule gives a much different rate. Senator Toomey then pressed on and specifically said the Taylor Rule called for rates higher than we have now, at which point Chairman Bernanke changed tack and argued that there were other policy rules that call for below-zero interest rates.

John B. Taylor March 1, 2011
Full article here

Well, Mr Ben Shalom Bernanke, there are many ways of looking at your performance, but the general rule is that you don't argue with a Jewish fiancial terrorist, posing as an expert of the matter.
While the inflation floods the world, Mr Ben wants to practice some 'many' ways of looking at the rule. I.e. a hammer dropped doesn't fall, but grows in size, when you place your eyes between the drop point and the centre of the earth.

Do You Hear Me? "Never" Again

2011-02-03T15:43:00.004Z

To those who would bet against the euro, watch out for your money because we are fully determined to defend the euro.

Mrs (German Chancellor Angela) Merkel and I will never -- do you hear me, never -- let the euro fall.

French President Nicolas Sarkozy
on 27th Jan 2011

Da, Da, Mr Sarkozy, you better watch out for your money because you and Angela don't have enough to defend the euro. By the way, I thought that a weaker euro helps EU exports? Let me think...are you afraid of wide protests because of rising prices on the horizon instead?

Wielki Szu

2010-08-08T15:27:00.006+01:00

Maybe next time you should check your facts before you flap your gums. Michael Grant DID suffer a KO loss to Golota. There's nothing worse than a know it all that doesn't know shit.

Bombay Bob, eastsideboxing.com

My body magnetism stops watches on my wrist. A joke told can change the life of a man who was born evil then got down through labour of upbringing, although successful people managed to resist and remained evil. Body is at a mercy of mind : if the candle is green then buy, if red then sell. People are weak and dirty so they've got to look strong and clean. Most know it's as stupid as woman's priority in life which is comfort while you fell in love with a fake smile that attracts unhappy children looking weird when smile for the camera; all in all 10 pips a day can change one's life.

A day trade (order to open closed manually) and three scalp trades. Forex is usually not perfect for trend following so scalping especially during months like August is a perfect way to kill boredom.

Unhappy Man

2010-05-11T12:53:00.005+01:00

In essence computers trading against computers decided at some point today to throw in the towel and not bid. Lovely, isn't it?
I have been waiting for this to happen and today it did. Supposedly, computer trading lowers volatility and bid/ask spreads for traders. Today we see that works until it doesn't.
By the way, this was not really a "black-swan" event. This was perfectly predictable although timing it was not. I have been discussing this scenario with a few friends for months.

Daily trading net revenue was $25 million or higher in all of the first quarter’s 63 trading days, New York-based Goldman Sachs reported in a filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission today. The firm reaped more than $100 million on 35 of the days, or more than half the time. Making $100 million a day for half the days in the quarter is quite a feat.
The only way I can possibly see that happening is if Goldman Sachs is front-running every "trade". If someone has another explanation, let's have it.

Mike Shedlock
globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Mike Shedlock is very unhappy because he lives in a world which is not right. The stock market defies the laws of Austrian School of Economics. The inflation is falling, although rising at the moment. 2010 had to be a year of big retracement, well...it's on the right track. And the bad banks are using computers for computer online trading.

A happy Mike's world would look like this:
Mike writes on his blog the stocks shouldn't rise because the economy looks very very bad. The investors and investment banks all read his blog so they refuse to buy stocks.
Mike writes on his blog the deflation should cause the prices to fall. The oil producers and farmers all read his blog so they lower their products prices right away, even if that means they will have no profit for the year.
Mike writes the computers shouldn't be used for computerised computer online trading. President Obama reads his blog so he announces the ban of computers. The banks refuse to use computers but keep the brainiest men in the trade, anyway they are as much good as computers.
Mike buys stocks and oil through his online trading platform (there must be exceptions) and writes on his blog: the economy looks good, the stocks should start to rise. The investors and banks are still skittish, but soon come to the same conclusion and the very big and real bull market begins. Mike now lives in an entirely happy world.

If someone has another explanation, let's have it.

The explanation is quite simple. You must be a real trader or investor who is better than the others - I assure you that Goldman Sachs have the very best.

Mike, you can be a trader, too. Here is how you start.
On S&P 1h chart whenever 20ma is heading lower and the price remains below it - sell, except when 3ma is heading higher towards 20ma, then wait till it turns south. Such simple strategy maybe won't provide you with all days in profit but you will surely make some money.

Day trading for few chosen only

2010-05-09T18:32:00.016+01:00

It makes no sense to give advice or teach how to trade - the most difficult job on the planet bar boxing or fighting the enemy on the front line. But here are some of my remarks and rules I follow in my technical approach. I day trade various markets, from General Dynamics to EUR/NOK, without paying attention to fundamentals. - Yes I consider myself a chartist.

-Every instrument and every time frame are different
-Do not try to trade too many markets, find the most suitable for you and use leverage
-Emotions are your enemy; yes be happy when you take profit, be sad when you lose, but entering trades out of excitement, anger or fear is a mistake
-Back test your method on a regular basis
-Hard work means nothing compared to good method
-Trade live as much as possible as opposed to entering trades and leaving them at the market's mercy
-Sell on extreme strength, buy on extreme weakness, otherwise NEVER trade against the trend
- Future probabilities =1, what's going on =2, past =3
-Always trade into wave along with the larger direction
-Trend reversals are rare and never bet you will catch it, you better go with the older trend instead
-Analyse your trades, eliminate the fault from the losers, develop your winners
-The stronger the move, the more you need to trade into its direction, you will surely make money before the wave reverses
-Create a method to lose money on your favourite instrument and back test it
-Adding to your winners is the most beautiful, difficult and most right thing to do
-Decrease weight on losing streak
-Skittishness doesn't pay
-Don't trade breakout in a range
-I am a good trader
-Take profit is good
-Orders to open are dangerous
-Bigger time frame is more important
-These tendencies should continue
-The most important area on the chart is the blank space to the right
-Remain confident, the opportunities will always be there
-Don't trade emotions or 'wish-waves', trade the real price action
-Never add to losers
-Market is like a woman, don't analyse it too much
-The biggest enemy of BBF CONT is a consolidation
-An error leads to emotional imbalance and further errors

As to my method (BBF CONT), it is quite simple - I buy when it goes up and sell when it goes down, which is not quite simple to do as the majority of schools, blogs and wannabe gurus teach the opposite because they all have an innate repulse to trend following for fear they would turn to be the last to buy or sell. Such a deep conviction is a result of lack of trading experience. As to charts, I use some on price indicators- Bollinger Bands 20.2 and moving averages (3,55,89), plus Stochastic and MACD below it.

USD/JPY - 5 min wave reversal

USD/JPY 1 hour bearish continuation

USD/JPY slide - add to your winners

I Am Innocent

2010-04-19T00:33:00.014+01:00

John Singer Sargent - Orestes Pursued by the Furies

If we practice and eye for an eye and a tooth for a tooth, soon the whole world will be blind and toothless.
Johann Wolfgang Von Goethe

Thanks to this widespread idea we live in a world put in motion by wicked souls. Proud owners of brilliant teeth and bobbing eyes, just not to miss any opportunity.

George Soros, speaking at a meeting organized by The Economist, warns all those who are throwing their money into the equity pit, that "the financial world is on the wrong track and that we may be hurtling towards an even bigger boom and bust than in the credit crisis." Reuters reports that Soros said "the same strategy of borrowing and spending that had got us out of the Asian crisis could shunt us towards another crisis unless tough lessons are learned." We hope all those who are buying stocks have very tight stop loss triggers.
Anthony Cherniawski
thepracticalinvestor.com

The world of plenty. Complete foolish demagogic unbridled practical investor. When was the last time this non-trader did make any money? For a year he's been telling to trade counter wave, counter major wave and into minor corrections. Yet, he is not stopping. Besides now he warns and feels sorry for those who have bought (and made money). George Soros is hardly a respectable trader, to listen to what he says. He is a market manipulator for sure and exploits the fact the masses listen to what he says. He is a lousy and dirty insider trader first of all.

There is nobody left and I just don’t know how they are going to be replaced. I have no idea. Just the outpouring of grief is amazing. Just to see the coffin of the President you have to stand in a line five miles long. Every Pole feels the grief right now and every Pole is touched by this, and we have no idea how we will rebuild this.
Tomasz Adamek - about president Lech Kaczynski's death

Adamek's got caught by the stampede of grief and has forgiven his brother Jaroslaw Kaczynski called him a 'feckless Pole' only because he'd emigrated. He also has no idea who would replace them ( the dead), staring at 5 mile long queue of candidates. Fortunately, not every Pole has been caught in this baby boomers emotional blackmail.

I could spend all day in the kitchen or in the street. I could write anything or keep silence. I could make friends, learn to sing or lie down motionless till I blow up. In any case I will be innocent as there's no guilt in my heart or gilt in the market I couldn't trade.

Sheep

2010-04-11T18:29:00.009+01:00

Against the flow - the easiest way to lose money

-- The two red volume bars in the S&P 500 this week are not a good sign. It is a good indication that selling pressure is increasing in stocks. Although there are no losses as of yet, it appears that the urge to take profits after this recent rally is increasing, especially at the quarter end. Mutual fund managers generally cannot sell unless their clients do, but private money managers may. Is it time to look for the exits?

Anthony Cherniawski
thepracticalinvestor.com

Mr Cherniawski remains impractically wishful. As much as the broadening top formation which he mesmerizes innocent investors with. So that they keep away from stocks and never get a penny from the undeniable and healthy bull market. Of course, he still holds the same short position he was talking about in August. He is wealthy, so he can.

Against the flow - the easiest way to make money

Apply some logic:

1. Oanda makes money on spreads weather you loose or win. Why would they care what direction you trade?

2. The more you have, the more you trade, the more they make. Why would they want you to loose it all? Nobody is that dumb. You are their cow to milk. Killing you means no milk for them.

Now, seriously:

1. People who rant about 50 pips spreads - have no idea what NEWS and speculation means, nor have they any notion of high vs low liquidity.
2. People who rant about slippage - have no idea, what liquidity means in general.
3. People who rant about spikes - have no idea how easy it is to hunt down and domino day trader\'s SL positions.
4. People who loose money - will always blame the broker.
5. People who win - will always praise themselves.

And further more:
1. We are all sheep.
2. We all run where they tell us.
3. Fear and greed is installed in all of us.
5. We all act emotionally.
6. We do not have the means to change any of the above.

With this knowledge, big players (and a handful of smart, quiet sheep) shave you daily.

Now. Armed with this information. Can you outrun 51% of all sheep?
Statistically you cannot in the long run.
According to Lorenz (Butterfly effect) you can outrun 54% with reasonable knowledge, but not significantly more even with infinite knowledge.

Leave Oanda alone. They have nothing to do with your incapability to think.
mrt
forexreal.com

"We don't have the means to change the above."

Hey mrt, I am logically-dissectingly sceptical towards any general mania or environmental pressure. Also your rant won't make me run or scream. Do you have any slot and appropriate denomination for me in your sophisticated system of thought?

"Leave Oanda alone. They have nothing to do with your incapability to think."

I share the view of the many Oanda users that the platform becomes unfriendly to successful traders. To verify this though, you need to be successful first. One of my experiences goes like this: I was long USD/ZAR on Monday, 1st of November 2009, when the price early about 1-2 am spiked from 7.82 to 8.24. At that time, the platform became unresponsive, which's never happened before or after as these are not busy forex hours to say the least. I logged off and tried to log in again, but all I saw was 'server busy, please try again later'. When I eventually got logged in, 25% of my gains have gone and never came back. Leave Oanda alone, if you're capable to think.

Atak na polską walutę

2010-04-11T17:33:00.007+01:00

Eksperci: nie trzeba się obawiać ataku na polską walutę

Prezes Narodowego Banku Polskiego Sławomir Skrzypek zginął w sobotniej katastrofie lotniczej pod Smoleńskiem. Jak podał NBP w komunikacie, jego obowiązki objął pierwszy zastępca prezesa Piotr Wiesiołek. Będzie je pełnił do czasu wybrania nowego prezesa banku centralnego przez Sejm na wniosek prezydenta.

"Nie można wykluczyć, że wobec tego, co się stało, spekulanci będą próbowali zarabiać na złotym" - powiedział PAP prezes Krajowej Izby Gospodarczej Andrzej Arendarski. Według niego właśnie dlatego nowy prezes Narodowego Banku Polskiego powinien zostać powołany jak najszybciej, żeby "pokazać, że ktoś stoi na straży" polskiej waluty.

onet.pl 10 April 2010

Osłabienie złotego jest nieuniknione, ale nie przez spekulantów, którzy (według źródeł medialnych kontrolowanych przez ośrodki polityczne) są winni wszystkim niepożądanym zmianom cenowym na świecie, ale poprzez najzwyklejszą dynamikę handlową. Inwestorzy, którzy kupili PLN krótkoterminowo, będą starali się sprzedać złotego już dziś wieczór. Ci, którzy chcieli kupić, powstrzymają się na tydzień - dwa. Niektórzy długoterminowi będą chcieli opuścić Polskę z kapitałem. Na koniec - spekulanci będą chcieli skorzystać na fali i wzmocnią ewentualny ruch w górę na EUR/PLN. Ruch powinien być większy niż na USD/PLN, gdyż ubiegły tydzień był pokazem 'siły' dobitego Euro, i uważam, że kontynuację tej tendencji ujrzymy również w tym tygodniu.

A Broker Story

2010-04-11T17:03:00.010+01:00

Hi there, This review is related to saxo and forexwebtrader together, I gave a scam to saxo because that decision was taken by saxo bank Here is the review Stay awaaaay from this group of mafia members called Forexwebtrader and god Father Saxo bank I had been with this company since Apr 2007 and when I was trading the news with their platform and when I found that there execution is good I decided to open another account with them. Last month after more than two month trading I asked to withdraw money from one of my account and then I got this e mail after one week Your request to withdraw funds from your account is still being processed by Finexo and its business partner - Saxo Bank. The reason for this delay is that we have reason to believe that exploitative strategies such as 'sniping' were employed in the account. For details please see section 4.12 of Finexo's General Business Terms. We shall reply to you shortly following further investigation. And I looked at this Section 4.12 and it says 4.12. Trading strategies aimed at exploiting errors in prices (commonly known as “sniping”) are not accepted by Finexo Global Investments Ltd.. If Finexo Global Investments Ltd., at its sole discretion in good faith, determines that Client is taking advantage or attempting to take advantage of such misquotes or is performing other forms of abusive trading, Finexo Global Investments Ltd. is entitled to take one or more of the following countermeasures: i Adjust the price spreads available to the Client; ii Restrict the Client’s access to streaming, instantly tradable quotes, including providing manual quotation only; iii Retrieve from the Client’s account any historic trading profits that have been gained through such abuse of liquidity – as determined by the bank in its sole discretion in good faith – at any time during the client relationship; and/or iv Terminate the client relationship immediately by giving written notice. If you look at this statement which is not related at all to the news trading and I already have a proof for almost 85% of the trading that I got the same price plus or minus 2 pips from other two platforms with the same prices as I got from forexwebtrader which proof that I never got a wrong prices like they mention in the statement and I got several messages in several cases says (price is too old. try again) which also give the evidence that there system never give a wrong price with me and I got around 50 trades within the last two month ….could anybody believe that any system give 50 wrong prices in 60 days??????? Then they should go out of business because they don’t deserve to be professional. And if you read the statement again you will realize that they just write the statement to be fogy and flexible to accuse anybody who gained profits with this accusation without giving any definition for sniping act means. Then I got this e mail After having investigated the situation of your two accounts, we, together with Saxo Bank, have established that the entire activity of your accounts (profits and losses) were acts of 'sniping'. We are therefore annulling all trades made in these accounts and returning the original deposit in accordance with your contract. Your accounts have now been frozen. The refunds will be made within the next few days and our Client Service Director will be in touch with you tomorrow. Elon Bezalely Finally they stole around $20,000 from me and $30,000 from my wife and we will go back after them all the way and we have all the proof of our profits and proof of right prices we got and I got also contact from another trader they stole also around $17,500 from his account also and we all will complain against Forexwebtrader BaFan in Germany and saxo bank in NFA in USA. And if we didn’t get our money we also going to sue them in British virgin island and I start to contact a lawyer there to be ready since they stole around $67,000 and it worth to go all the way for it. Finally I read the statement wrote by Michael Primus - Marketing Director - ForexWebTrader.com, Duesseldorf, Germany He wrote: This trader's deposit was returned to him in full - which we feel is more than fair” So I want to ask him…to refund the trader deposit in this case is consider for you as a more than fair…so what about if your company treat him with your just fair treatment not (more than fair)….what are you going to do with him and what do you used to do with other traders….take there fund also??????? My advice to all traders that go away as far as you can from this company and the god father Saxo bank because you will lose you money and time and you will get you original fund after more than month like me and maybe they will treat you next time with their fair treatment and take you fund. Note: if anybody wants to have a look at the statements and trades history reports I had with them, just send me an email to hesham_ha@yahoo.com and I’ll send it to you as an attachment.

hesham
forex-ratings.com

If you were looking for an honest broker, you would probably be put off by this comment posted in 2007. Generally, Saxo Bank is getting a poor feedback from (ex)-users of their services. Of course, it's easy to blame brokers for unsuccessful trading practices, but do you want to check if Saxo Bank is willing to give you your own money?

Media

2009-11-29T20:10:00.007Z

Pandemia nowej grypy może okazać się największą aferą korupcyjną naszych czasów. Do takiego wniosku doszli dziennikarze duńskiej gazety "Information", którzy przeprowadzili śledztwo dotyczące związków ekspertów medycznych Światowej Organizacji Zdrowia (WHO) z największymi firmami farmaceutycznymi. Koncerny te zarabiają ogromne pieniądze na sprzedaży preparatów przeciwko grypie.
- Zaniepokojenie wywołuje fakt, że wielu naukowców, zasiadających w różnych komitetach WHO, przedstawia się jako niezależni eksperci, a w istocie figurują na liście płac farmaceutycznych gigantów - mówi profesor epidemiologii Tom Jefferson, badacz z Cochrane Center w Rzymie. Naukowiec podkreśla, że choć naturalne środki zaradcze przeciw grypie, jak higiena i częste mycie rąk, mogą być skuteczniejsze, to w dokumentach WHO wspomina się o tym zaledwie kilka razy, podczas gdy o szczepionkach kilkadziesiąt.
O śledztwie duńskich dziennikarzy pisze rosyjski dziennik "Nowye Izviestia". Gazeta wyjaśnia, że wielu naukowców pracujących w WHO, ukrywa fakt otrzymywania pieniędzy od światowych gigantów farmaceutycznych.

onet.pl

Jak pisałem wiele miesięcy temu, świńska grypa to młodsza siostra ptasiej grypy, którą przywołano do życia w 2003, w dobie poprzedniej recesji. Nie tylko pewne grupy zbijają niezłą kasę, ale również szczepionki są mocno podejrzane. Osoby po ataku serca 'muszą' się szczepić prewencyjnie. Wszystkie doniesienia o nowych przypadkach i śmierci pojawiają się regularnie, wszędzie i 'zgodnie'. Kampania pełną parą. Ludzie uwierzą; media wciąż mają siłę przekonywania, a nietypowych przypadków grypy nie braknie.

Hackers Prove Global Warming Is A Scam

It's now official. Much of the hype about global warming is nothing but a complete scam.
Thanks to hackers (or an insider) who broke into The University of East Anglia's Climatic Research Unit (CRU) and downloaded 156 megaybytes of data including extremely damaging emails, we now know that data supporting the global warming thesis was completely fabricated.

Mike Shedlock
21 November, 2009

I have read (officially) an officially published book 'State of Fear' (2004) by Michael Crichton which talks convincingly about the green terrorists and corrupted goverments. The leakage doesn't surprise me, but I doubt it will refrain people from going green or moreover questionnig the media as source of valuable information.

Perma-Bears Turn Bullish

2009-07-29T18:14:00.005+01:00

If the market was indeed the vicious beast that I described in the beginning of this column, having hurt the bears so much, it now seems likely to go after the bulls …
The trap is set. A lack of follow through, a turn on a dime and a decline in line with fundamentals is all that remains.
The best way to accomplish that is for the S&P 500 index to rise above the June high of 956 and set up an even bigger bull trap!
In doing so, the charts would show an accomplished bottom formation signaling the rally to endure. Bulls would feel vindicated and start buying. And many of the remaining bears would be forced to retreat and abandon their short positions.
Thus the trap is set. The only thing remaining now is a lack of follow through, a turn on a dime and a decline in line with fundamentals.

Claus Vogt, Money and Markets
22 July 2009

Last Thursday, the S&P 500 index rose above its June high. In doing so, it’s showing an important bottoming formation: A huge head and shoulders bottom. Rising volume and strong market breadth confirmed the buy signal. Additional proof came from foreign markets showing more or less the same bullish pattern. And from the 200-day moving averages, which are in the process of turning around as well.
I take these signals seriously. They’re telling me to expect a continuation of the bear market rally off of the March lows.
I deem it probable now that this rally will have legs. And I expect the markets to keep rising and not come under serious pressure again until the second quarter of 2010.

Claus Vogt, Money and Markets
29 July 2009

It is rare to see. Money and Markets 'experts' used to lead the subscribers to a loss, there is a high probability they are wrong this time, too. I recall they advised to sell at all recent bottoms, in October, March and July. They have no respect for waves, sentiment, they only stick to their understanding of fundamentals. Following their advice seems to be one of the quickest ways to lose money.

Mass Misconceptions

2009-06-30T18:48:00.007+01:00

Trading

The main reason why most investors and traders lose money instead of securing stable and considerable profits (which they expect) is lack of trading skills, knowledge and the awareness that such elements are necessary to generate income. All the trading services you may find on the web have one objective : to get money from those who lost money, need trading confidence or any real guidance. Of course, the subscribers get eventually fleeced.
The publishers and writers are scibomaniacs who often do not trade at all - have you ever thought : when do they do trading, posting so many newsletters, sometimes daily?
They are detached from the real price action thus they beam with perma-bull or perma-bear confidence, which although attractive by nature reduces the portfolios to a state beyond recovery. Browsing the Internet, a potential market participant will find all kind of fundamental bullshit, sometimes very sophisticated - using comparisons and blend of facts very appealing to one's imagination. Yes, fundamental long-term investors do make money. So, some are right at least for a period of time. This in no way detracts from the general points made above.
To make money one has to study the charts and acquire trading methods which bring consistent gains on daily, weekly or long-term basis. The throughout knowledge of technical analysis is an absolute must. Then the study of morphology of waves which helps to identify trend and choose adequate strategy. It may take years before the student becomes a successful trader who makes money whichever chart he or she gaze upon. Personally, I do not care about what media or 'experts' have to say. I do not rely on fundamentals at all. I often do follow news for fun or to spot some contrary indicators.

Great Train Robber

Biggs was part of the 15-strong gang who stole £2.6 million from a mail train in Buckinghamshire in 1963. Driver Jack Mills was struck over the head during the raid and never fully recovered before his death seven years later.
Biggs was jailed for 30 years for his part in the robbery but escaped after just 15 months of his sentence and fled to South America.
He handed himself into the authorities after 35 years on the run and is currently on remand in the hospital wing of Norwich Prison but his son has been campaigning for his relief because of his deteriorating health.
Bigg's solicitor Giovanni di Stefano said his client was "ecstatic" at the decision. "He knows about this and he's very pleased and his release is now just a few days away. It's a brand new home that he will be going to and his son will be only a half a mile away and will be able to visit every day."
Telegraph

The British taxpayers (except for some merciful unreasonable souls) don't agree to pay for this criminal's health care. Mr Biggs is an outlaw and should be treated as such. The British justice system has gone a long way and now it became a national service for "social inadequates". If I were Justice, I would give him a 'light tap' with an iron bar despite his condition, I would sentence his bred-with-stolen-money son to a prison-labor camp for life and cut off the tongue of his vicious solicitor.

Non-Financial Times

2009-06-20T20:09:00.005+01:00

Financial Times

Try the FT newspaper and FT.com for just £1 for 4 weeks. Top business journalists bring you thought-provoking articles to help frame your thinking. Benefit from detailed coverage of markets, politics and economic policy.

Always behind the curve. Always something everybody seems to know or agree with. Always unable to forecast effectively, your Financial Times. Top business scribomaniacs ready to frame your mind. Are you able to bullshit at their levels? No! So do not hesitate, only £1 a month. If still unsure, you better check their invaluable 5-year archive.

Smart Money vs Dumb Money

It seems individual investors are shoveling money into the market. Inflows into equity funds have been very strong over the past four weeks, according to Trim Tabs Investment Research. And that’s precisely why some pros are getting out. That right, the catalyst that some pros are using to short this market is --you, sucker.
Trimtabs president Charles Biderman is advising all his professional clients to turn entirely bearish on US stocks in part because you’re coming in. He says individuals pointed to the market’s bottom with record outflows in March and now they’re pointing to the top with hefty inflows. In other words, retail investors follow the heard and by the time they join the party it’s practically over. That makes you – and me -- a contrary indicator. "I happen to agree," adds Fast Money trader Guy Adami. "The retail money typically comes in late.”
But why can’t that be a positive? “They’ve always been wrong before,” says Biderman. “They invest with their eyes on the rear view mirror and their foot on the gas and wonder why they crash.” In fact, Biderman thinks we're all wrong. He says top insiders of public companies are not buying -- they’re selling – and as fast as they can.
Lee Brodie, 19 June 2009
CNBC

Master of Suckers Lee Brodie leads his troops against ugly insiders. The probable outcome will resemble Rocky movies - bumpy road towards dizzily clear skies.
Why? Suckers know they have to buy after a crash and when the recession is over. Those brainless insiders don't, they think they are smarter than that! Secondly : look at those handsome Fast Money guys, ideally fluent in thought and speech. Do not be afraid of an old Biderman. Thirdly, a smart money initiated sell-off will not last if only we 'suckers' don't panic.

Hurrah!

2009-06-15T23:59:00.003+01:00

Recession is over. Therefore some weakness should be expected at throwing money into not so thriving companies, after which the bull market will resume ahead of the public debt fuelled economic recovery set for 2010. But don't assume I am right, although I may well be.
It is summertime and hailstorm in Manchester.

Złote proporcje

2009-06-15T19:01:00.007+01:00

www.owg.pl

To pewnie nie koniec bańki spekulacyjnej na złocie. Przed nami jednak korekta, która może zepchnąć złoto poniżej 900 dolarów za uncję.

Kto głupi, ręka w górę!

2009-06-10T01:31:00.005+01:00

Genialna 2-latka ma iloraz inteligencji jak Bill Gates

2-letnia Brytyjka Karina Oakley ma IQ równe 160 - tyle samo, ile znani w świecie geniusze Bill Gates i Stephen Hawking - podaje "Daily Mail".
Testy na inteligencję wykazały, że Karina jest najmądrzejszym dzieckiem w Wielkiej Brytanii. Jej inteligencja jest równa IQ znanego fizyka, autora "Krótkiej historii czasu" - 67-letniego Stephena Hawkinga oraz twórcy Microsoftu, 53-letniego miliardera Billa Gatesa.
Chociaż dwulatka może pochwalić się poziomem inteligencji dużo wyższym od przeciętnego dorosłego, ma zainteresowania jak zwyczajna dziewczynka w jej wieku. Lubi się przebierać, malować, bawić zabawkami i grać w różne gry.
Według psychologów, dziewczynka ma jednak psychikę dziecka w wieku 4-5 lat. Specjalne testy wykazały, że ma wyjątkową pamięć oraz zdolności werbalne, a także ogromną wyobraźnię. Matka Kariny, Charlotte Fraser mówi, że od momentu urodzenia dziewczynki, przebywała z nią cały czas w domu. Przez ten czas dużo do niej mówiła, zawsze starała się odpowiadać na pytania dziecka. Karina zawsze była ciekawa, dużo pytała i miała wiele obserwacji dotyczących otaczającego świata - mówi Charlotte.
Przeciętna inteligencja dorosłego człowieka mieści się w przedziale 90-109. Osoby z IQ powyżej 140 uważane są już za wyjątkowo uzdolnione.
wp.pl

Oto artykuł przyprawiający rozsądnego człowieka o niewybredny rechot. Zacznijmy od tego, że autor wymyślił sobie, że Karina jest najmądrzejszym dzieckiem w UK. W oryginalnym artykule Daily Mail nic podobnego nie było ('brainy' nie znaczy mądry).
Czym jest inteligencja? Inteligencja jest zdolnością do operowania kształtami, znaczeniami, liczbami czy językiem. Nie ma ona wiele wspólnego z mądrością czy wiedzą. Człowiek może być głupi i inteligentny. Mądry, ale ograniczony. Posiadać wiedzę i być nieinteligentnym. Pytanie dla czytelnika : której z trzech miar brakuje autorowi artykułu? Odpowiedź brzmi : wszystkich. IQ równy sto nie pozwoli na rozbieżne potraktowanie oryginału. Wiedza to znajomość pojęć i języków obcych. Mądrość nie pozwoli człowiekowi na pracę w zawodzie dziennikarza.
Ja jednak chciałem o nieporozumieniach, jakie oryginał implikuje. Po pierwsze, test był dostosowany do wieku, w związku z czym porównanie do Gatesa i Hawkinga to zwykły sensacjonizm. Test ten dla ludzi dorosłych jest po prostu dziecinny. Po drugie - nacisk, jaki kładzie się na 'tę inteligencję', mierzoną przez 'czyjeś' testy, jest po prostu podejrzany. Kto uważa, że coś jest bardziej inteligentne, a coś mniej? Kto wymyślił taki a nie inny czas reakcji? Co, jeżeli testowany uważa, że ćwiczenie zawiera błąd matematyczny? Co to jest Mensa? I dlaczego sieje w ludziach logikę i emocjonalność wyścigu szczurów już od kołyski?
Inteligencja, zwłaszcza ta mierzona 'naukowymi' testami, na niewiele się przydaje w życiu. Jest sporo dużo ważniejszych cech. Na przykład siła woli. Zdolność do wykrywania fałszu. Do stwarzania potrzebnych pozorów. Do dbania o własne interesy; umiejętność 'załatwienia sobie'. Żeby mieć spokojne sumienie. I zdrowie, które od nas zbytnio nie zależy (wbrew propagandzie o zdrowym żywieniu i takim a siakim trybie życia).

Chociaż dwulatka ma wyższą inteligencję od przeciętnej dziewczynki, ma zainteresowania jak zwyczajna dziewczynka w jej wieku. Jaka szkoda! Bo przecież powinna mieć zainteresowania inteligentniejsze niż większość dorosłych. Na przykład wytykać błędy w teorii komunizmu. Albo kwestionować system edukacji.
Chociaż przeciętny czytelnik zdaje sobie sprawę, że Karina nie wie, czym są system edukacji i teoria komunizmu, mało który zdaje sobie sprawę, jak bezsensowny artykuł czyta!

Military

2009-06-07T02:21:00.008+01:00

Our Blood, Their Tears

But this is not the end of today’s surprises. If you start reading Polish web-services you will find articles regarding Russian view of how the II World War started. Mr Siergiej N. Kowalow is writing in his article that everyone who knows proper history knows that Poland is the one to blame for starting the II World War, because it refused to give up some of its land to Germans. I read this and couldn't believe that someone would even let publishing such a thing. Then I have decided to check weather it is true and surprisingly it was! On the official website of The Russian Federation Ministry of Defence you can find the article. Of course if you change the website language to English the sub-page with Russian “historical truth” is missing, why? Fortunately we can use google translate to see everything.

http://www.niqueart.com/niquespot/

The Russian drunken dream hides more gems. Millions of Russians were begging Stalin in letters to be taken into death work camps and die. Likes of Kowalow were reluctant to harm, but social pressure was so great that they had no choice but to ask them politely to work and die - only when necessary. Despite this conservative approach, mad and unreasonable Russians drove themselves to exhaustion, starvation, disease and death.
Unreasonable Polish begged Stalin to invade Poland in September 1939, soon after they had realised the best thing they can do after starting a war is to accelerate it and move closer to the end. Kowalows invaded sorry Poland hiding the faces and tears in the hands. They had to take the hands off, too - when Polish military officers asked to be massacred and buried secretly in Katyn forests.

Air France plane: Brazilian navy starts search of crash zone

The hunt for clues for what brought down an Air France jet over the Atlantic has started after Brazilian navy ships arrived at the crash zone to trawl for debris. Two Brazilian navy vessels, a patrol boat and a corvette, were in the area, 600 miles off Brazil's northeast coast, officials said. However, by nightfall they had not sighted or recovered any of the items spotted by air force aircraft, which included a plane seat, a life vest, cables, a chunk of fuselage and other plane components. No bodies had been found. Three other Brazilian vessels, including a tanker able to keep the flotilla in the area for weeks, and a French ship with mini-submarines were to arrive over coming days. As the search begins, questions are still being asked over what could have caused the plane to come down. Answers may lie in the plane's black box data and cockpit voice recorders. But they are feared to be resting on the rugged sea bottom, at least 3,000 meters underwater, and would be very difficult if not impossible to recover even if the vast search area was narrowed down, experts have said.

Telegraph

A passenger plane shot down by a missile during military exercise is not a rare species. To find one though, you cannot rely on the media or politicians, you need to spot it on your own. The more mysterious and unexplainable plane crash, the bigger certainty you 're on the right track.

Roaring Heads of The Past Bull

2009-06-01T04:01:00.011+01:00

Stock markets, commodities and dollar are correcting. Typically, the past bulls who weren't slaughtered during the waves down claim the new Bull is being born. I assure you, when it is really born, nobody speaks its name! In the meantime, the optimists are facing Jessops like carnage - up from 1 pound before the present correction, now down to 2 from 8, after the news Jessops can undergo shareholder wipe out.
The current trend/correction may finish before the 20Th of June in a sharp spike up on the charts. The new lows may occur in early September. My view is based on weak fundamentals and belief in a 'depression scenario'. On the other hand, the charts don't look that bad. Many already crashed and some are really bullish. Anyway, If you want to participate in the ride down make sure you're a skilled trader and good risk manager.

Sounds of the Universe

2009-05-01T00:43:00.011+01:00

Depeche Mode have released their new album. Judging by what I saw on youtube prior to the release, I thought it would be their worst album. Then I heard the songs and think the album is very weak. It may be a commercial flop as it is even worse than the previous LP - Playing The Angel. Here I quote some comments from youtube that I liked, mine included.

When people start saying this album is better than Exciter and Playing The Angel, that goes to show you how bad it might be in their past 25 years. I might give it a chance against Exciter, but Playing the Angel had more thump and songs you knew you would go back to. This one, for me and speaking only for me, does not. Ghost and Oh Well the bonus tracks however, work for me.
fatograph

Wilder left largely because he wasn't getting much credit for what he brought to the band. He brought much of that classic musicality and "darkness" that Depeche Mode is known for. And he said there was a lot of tension in the band and relationships were deteriorating. I'm a longtime DM fan, and the music just wasn't as good after Wilder left. So many speak about Gore and Gahan (and Fletch, ha ha) but don't speak of how much Wilder brought to their sound. Since around 1997, it seems they either are imitating their old styles, and presenting weaker versions of those older songs, or making lightweight songs like this that just don't have the musical or emotional heft that the Wilder-era songs did.
mykalroze

Make sure you listen to Liquid and Subhuman. There is no room there for random barely processed sounds I can get on any synthesizer. DM minus AW had professional musicians for Ultra and to a lesser extent for Exciter. They finally have two new guys from PTA on. All these options are not cheaper than Alan and far below in terms of performance. SOTU - M&D finally took production into their hands (Fletch playing with video camera). Result - the worst album bar A Broken Frame. Since Alan left...those guys don't know 1 tenth of Alan's arsenal as to how to create and prioritize sounds, how to compose song sequences, how to record perfect sound structure without participation in the loudness war. Ultra is still decent, but an army of musicians took part.
despe906

After listening to the album, I feel I'm ready to say that of the 4 albums DM released since Alan left, Ultra is the better one. This one, although some interesting ideas and throwback good ol' DMelectro sound, is not living up the high standards they've set up for themselves. Alan departure has left a very noticeable dent into their song making process and the essence of what DM was is gone since Alan left. Their work now seems sub par compared to their previous masterpieces. The last good song that Martin sang was Home from Ultra, after that, I don't know, it feels that they have lost their touch. Not impressed at all, and I'm a life-long DM fan.
willyjoel

Exciter was disappointing. Dull and under produced. Song sequences not developed at all - The Sweetest Condition, Breathe. Melodies became flat, sound uninspired. PTA is a recording disaster. Sound dynamics not only get smashed, but at this point it was the worst DM sound. Speak&Spell sound, although minimalist, was at least clear and functional. Random sounds defying basic principles of sound space (layers of backgrounds) don't let me enjoy PTE. I had a weird feeling when SOFAD cd was released. What I think now, Alan's role in production was diminished...Martin tried to be more artistically involved, Dave started to shout instead of singing while Alan became a drummer.
despe906

Actually Wilder co-produced "SOFAD" with Flood.. (Wilder learned to play a drum-kit while the album was being recorded..) "SOFAD" also features some of Gahan's and Gore's best vocals on any one DM album...ie Condemnation, One Caress.
tekbike

ALAN COME BACK FOR THE FUCK 'S SAKE
alanwilder81

I just realized what this song reminds me of: Smashing Pumpkins. Take The Cardigans + Smashing Pumpkins on sleeping pills and you'll have "In Sympathy".
"Peace" sounds like a mix of Kraftwerk at their best and Erasure at their worst, with a little bit of The Beatles on the side.
partyfears2012

Depeche Mode in their own eyes

Dave Gahan, 2003 : "Martin wouldn't acknowledge that Alan contributed incredibly much to Martin's songs. And now I think you can easily say Alan's input is missed. I actually think that even Martin would admit that today. And that is something he probably ought to call and tell Alan after all these years. He would definitely appreciate it."

Dave Gahan on Exciter's production :"Our producer on 'Exciter', Mark Bell, said that he really wouldn't make the entire album for us. So then i had to tell him some news: "Yes you f'u'c'king are!". And then he just pulled up his sleeves and went to work with the computer and Martin would look him over the shoulder and mumble "o.k."

Alan Wilder about DM : "Depeche Mode, these days, is essentially a Martin Gore solo project with Dave singing - it is bound to sound different and perhaps people just miss the translation onto record of 'band interaction' / 'chemistry' / 'tension' - call it what you will." "I still feel remixes are undertaken for the wrong reasons - as marketing tools - and that sours their effect for me."

Alan Wilder on the volume war, 2008 :

"We live in a world of technology - exponentially increasing breakthroughs in all things scientific. So fast that we can't even keep up with it. So why is it that the audio quality of music is degenerating? Music 'sounds' worse. We have stopped listening, we don't have time. We only have time to be smacked in the face by the loudest, most attention-grabbing blast of souped-up noise imaginable until ear fatigue sets in and the desire to 'change the record' takes over. Why are the adverts on TV twice the volume of the regular broadcasts?
It's the only way to get our attention in the VOLUME WAR.

In recent years, a revolution in processing technology has instigated a change in the way albums are mastered. In order to compete, A&R men, producers, even the artists are demanding that mastering engineers, via digital compression, crank up the level so high that all dynamic range is callously sacrificed.

(Compression essentially increases the volume of the quieter elements within a mix while holding steady the peaks of the louder parts)

The effect of excessive compression is to obscure sonic detail and rob music of its emotional power leaving listeners strangely unmoved. In fact, the ear naturally compresses high volume blasts to protect itself - this is why we associate compression with level. Our sophisticated human brains have evolved to pay particular attention to any loud noise, so initially, compressed sounds seem more exciting. It is short lived. After a few minutes, research shows, constant volume grows tiresome and fatiguing.

True excitement comes from variation in rhythm, tone, pitch and a wide range of dynamics which in turn provides space and warmth - something you're unlikely to find in much of today's rock/pop music. If you want a good example, listen to The Arctic Monkeys 'I Bet You Look Good on the Dance Floor' for a bombardment of the most unsubtle, one-dimensional noise."

Koniec kwietnia

2009-04-30T23:08:00.007+01:00

Nie wierzę w za kilkaset lat w muzyce zwanej rozrywkową (po prawdzie, każda jest rozrywkową, nawet mszalna). Bagaż melodii do poznania...już dziś nie sposób usłyszeć wszystkiego, co warte. Choć człowiek zna tylko jeden kierunek - więcej, szybciej i lepiej, to ziemia jest ziemią i inne prawo na niej panuje.

Świńska grypa nie jest zagrożeniem. Zwykła ludzka grypa zabija tysiące ludzi rocznie i nikt nie panikuje. Media mają swoje interesy, żeby dmuchać w temat do czerwoności. Jak zakończyła się saga z ptasią grypą? Jedno jest pewne - zaczęła się w dobie kryzysu ekonomicznego, w 2003.

Zgodnie z moimi przewidywaniami okazało się, że Kubica w BMW to droga donikąd. Miły akcent, że prowadzi w rywalizacji 'zapytaj eksperta'. Nie sądzę, żeby 'ulepszenia' w Hiszpanii doprowadziły do rewolucji w tabeli punktowej. Natomiast myślę, że Ferrari pokaże nowe oblicze.

Pamiętaj chemiku młody - na ziemi nie ma wiedzy neutralnej. Każdy atom logiki pływa w morzu funkcji mniej lub bardziej nadętej manii. Ostatnio czytałem na pewnym blogu, że świat się wali, a ocaleniem świata będą Chiny. Autor blogu zapewne nigdy nie był w Chinach, ani nie zna osobiście żadnego Chińczyka.

A wiedza do niczego mi nie jest potrzebna. Gdy wszystko skończy się jak myślałem, wsyp mnie do ziemi, skąd przyjechałem.

Sul progresso

2009-03-27T03:10:00.004Z

Popularny serwis poświęcony Formule 1, planet-F1.com przewiduje jak potoczą się losy rywalizacji o mistrzostwo w sezonie 2009. Eksperci typują polskiego kierowcę BMW Sauber Roberta Kubicę jako głównego kandydata do tytułu.
Onet.pl

Zapomnijta ludzie w 2009 o Kubicy. BMW Sauber ma problem. Kubica dostał nakaz wyrażania się pozytywnie o zespole. I powiedział - "jest zabawnie". W Australii będzie najwyżej piąty, lub nie ukończy wyścigu.

US Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner shocked global markets by revealing that Washington is "quite open" to Chinese proposals for the gradual development of a global reserve currency run by the International Monetary Fund.
Telegraph

World currency is coming. The scary thing is the majority of global population will embrace it with optimism. Those opposed will be eliminated. There are too many weapons in the central bankers arsenal. On the other hand, only a slight percentage of humans question central banking.

Stock markets in Asia climbed for a fifth day, helped by banking and mining shares, after the Federal Reserve’s surprise decision to buy $300bn (£210bn) of Treasuries increased hopes that economic growth will revive.
Telegraph

I was surprised so many experts I respect called the bottom. The charts, however, say nothing about the trend reversal. Before the end of this economic carnage we will see indices at deeper lows. I think. I am not always right. Interestingly, those who scream the loudest, scream inflation and hyperinflation as well.

Grâce à ces mesures, en cinq ans, nous pouvons atteindre le plein emploi, c’est à-dire un chômage inférieur à 5% et un emploi stable à temps complet pour tous. C’est de cette manière que nous pourrons vraiment réduire la pauvreté, l’exclusion et la précarité.
Nicolas Sarcozy, 2007

On sait quelles mesures. Comme la cause économique du chômage est le progrès technique et l'évolution de la productivité, il suffit de ralentir le progrès et de rabaisser la productivité. Une petite consolation - dans la quête du pire le socialisme français est facilement surpassé par : l’art du discours.

Have Faith

2009-03-24T03:52:00.003Z

I feel good. I am fearless. Women love me. I do not know. Know what? Who knows.

You may think beliefs, thoughts and sensual reflection of the reality are at the centre of you. This is not true. The centre is your Heart.

You may think you have always worked hard so you deserve a small mercy of Justice. You have wasted your life working hard to no effect.

You are the only person whom you can trust. So why are you the person thought to be by those whom you cannot trust? Have you ever thought you were denied all your life?

I feel good. I can bear the pain. I see the future which is no good.

"I write and leave behind me this letter at Saint Petersburg. I feel that I shall leave life before January 1. I wish to make known to the Russian people, to Papa, to the Russian Mother and to the Children, to the land of Russia, what they must understand. If I am killed by common assassins, and especially by my brothers the Russian peasants, you, Tsar of Russia, will have nothing to fear for your children, they will reign for hundreds of years in Russia. But if I am murdered by boyars, nobles, and if they shed my blood, their hands will remain soiled with my blood, for twenty-five years they will not wash their hands from my blood. They will leave Russia. Brothers will kill brothers, and they will kill each other and hate each other, and for twenty-five years there will be no nobles in the country. Tsar of the land of Russia, if you hear the sound of the bell which will tell you that Grigori has been killed, you must know this: if it was your relations who have wrought my death, then no one in the family, that is to say, none of your children or relations, will remain alive for more than two years. They will be killed by the Russian people. I go, and I feel in me the divine command to tell the Russian Tsar how he must live if I have disappeared. You must reflect and act prudently. Think of your safety and tell your relations that I have paid for them with my blood. I shall be killed. I am no longer among the living. Pray, pray, be strong, think of your blessed family. -Grigori"

Some say this letter is not authentic. Some have a ready explanation for every controversy surrounding Rasputin. However, we must conclude there is more mystery about him than anything else. Facts no one can deny : this guy was there. Killed a few months before the bloodiest revolutions. Urging Russia to sign a peace treaty with Germany. Holding sway over the most powerful family in Russia. Being probably the only man able to prevent the revolution, death of millions and 100 years of oppression that ensued.

Obama Nope

2009-03-21T15:24:00.006Z

President Barack Obama began his term with record approval rating. Barack Obama's inaugural approval rating of 83% easily topped John F. Kennedy's inaugural approval rating of 72%, the previous record set in 1961. Within three days, however, Barack Obama's approval rating tumbled 15 points to 68% after his executive order on a highly controversial issue and as the true details of his economic plan and religious beliefs began to emerge. Barack Obama's current rating is driven by his policies on the economy, Iraq, Afghanistan, Iran, as well as his positions on marriage and abortion, including of babies born alive, and does suffer from racism. Like the Presidents before him, President Obama and his handlers are doing their best to manage the media and thereby manage the public's expectation and approval rating.

www.godvoter.com

Voters hoped for an end to Iraq war, Wall Street bail-outs and police state under pretext of "war on terrorism". As anybody who has eyes to see and ears to hear would guess, things advanced in another direction. US Military Budget will grow further. Not only the US troops won't leave Iraq, but the US are reinforcing their position in Afghanistan, Poland and Czech Republic surrounding Russia. Bail-out money (tax-payers money) flows freely into the chosen few pockets. The Fed continues to dictate policies and prepare government agenda.
Voters still fear President Barack Obama will be assassinated. Although, John Kennedy was assassinated because he wanted to usurp the Fed's power. Voters are not concerned with Obama's Youth movement, because Hitler wasn't black, gentle and smiling.
But time will bring change. Illusion will go. Instead of resolving the mystery of a highly suspicious WTC destruction, President Obama is likely to bring about more financial hardship, political trouble and social anger.

Encore une manif

2009-03-21T13:21:00.006Z

"I am certain that if Obama and the Pelosi/Reed Congress succeed in fully implementing their agenda, there is no chance the U.S economy will recover its position as world's leading economy".
Peter Schiff

Right, Mister Schiff, you cannot recover what you haven't lost.

Telegraph reports:
Violence on Paris streets as millions protest

Photo-AP

Schools, courts, post offices, universities and hospitals were closed, with public transport severely disrupted, as up to 200 marches were organised against President Nicolas Sarkozy's approach to the global downturn. The biggest protests were in Paris, where police said up to 85,000 people took five hours to walk from Place de la République to Place de la Nation. As the light faded, hundreds of riot police were sent to the area where anarchist groups waving revolutionary flags were among those massing. Riot police fired rounds of tear gas after demonstrators lit fires and smashed shop windows. Fighting broke out on all corners of the square, with police moving in to try to arrest ring leaders.

You have to search for this kind of news. You will learn about riots in Europe capitals from Wikipedia. Forget about "mainstream media" - machine of mass disinformation.

Chants of "Sarkozy resign" were heard as what appeared to be well organised gangs went on the rampage in surrounding streets, targeting banks and other symbols of capitalism. A riot police spokesman said: "There are a number of people who seem determined to cause trouble. We are doing everything we can to maintain order."

Baby boomers will do everything to suffocate freedom. Banks and tyrannic "democracy" are the symbols of their beliefs.

Earlier, unions said that the number of protesters nationwide had approached three million. Police put the estimate at greater than the two million who took part in similar demonstrations at the end of January. The latest strike won support across the country, with three quarters of those questioned in polls saying they feared for their futures. Mr Sarkozy unveiled a package of proposals, including tax breaks and social benefits, after January's strike, but protesters said the £2.3 billion deal was not enough. The president said on Wednesday he understood "the concerns of the French people" but ruled out plans for further measures.

Any protesters' input, though, into the economic policies will probably lead to a greater disaster. Their minds are 100% socialist. They have been brainwashed for decades by mass media and public education system. As long as life is livable (relatively), protesters will vote for Sarcozy and global imbeciles' world.

Human Lawmakers

2009-03-08T04:18:00.001Z

If I were Economy, I would find it easy to defeat today's humans. First of all, I would notice how little they and their leaders understand about me. How far they have gone from me and how vulnerable they have become. Every human illusion finally finds its place on the rock bottom of reality. But this time, harsher life-lessons await. Never before in human history, was so little understood by so many and laughed at by so few.

Whatever the humans can say about animals, however poor animals' understanding of humans may be, I would have this to say: blackbirds, lady-birds and black apes know me better. Unless they are endangered by human tyranny, they deal with freedom, lots of sunshine and leisure time. This is something the humans can only dream of.
The humans possess a dangerous tool. They call it brain. This brain operates small amounts of sensual derivatives, called thoughts. Eventually, the attraction of thought grew into information, science and beliefs - vision of reality. In this derived environment, the humans picked up the task of reforming the laws of nature, and of me, Natural Economy. I was not surprised to see dismal results: starvation, mass extermination and weapons of destruction challenging the planet itself.

Original animal perception verging on clairvoyance has long gone. The humans are today driven by popular beliefs which resemble pure lunacy when you think deeper. Economically, the more their brain tries to outsmart me, the poorer they become. It thinks: consumption will increase employment. Employment brings about wealth. To stimulate consumption, we need credit and 2% inflation. Do you hear me, lazy lizards? You will handle a sledgehammer 10 hours a day, you will live in concrete bunkers and be linked electronically to all the world's lizards. But no leisure. You must be acquiring more and more skills and worry...about debt. Doesn't sound attractive? Well, you have no choice. You would be stigmatized in the lizards world.

At economic universities, the history of human economic defeats is called : History of Economic Progress. It is not to suggest that after the defeat, understanding and improvements ensue. In contrary, the human brain targets symptoms and ignores the real fundamentals. Fights war with more armament. Maintains (credit inspired) overpopulation with child tax credit. Props up self-liquidating excess of debt by credit expansion. Creates value losing currency to hold up the level of spending. What spending? No-matter-what. Any. Business opportunities will abound. All you need is brains.

If I were Economy, I would find it easy. But it doesn't play games, doesn't fight wars. Its laws last eternally somewhere around, as the human economic parody crumbles to dust once again under its own impossibility.

Game of Chess Lost by Whole Generation

2009-03-02T00:30:00.001Z

"You've got some economists and some folks who think they're economists. By the way, these days everybody thinks they're economists"
Barack Obama

Timothy Geithner, David Cutler, Robert Rubin, Elizabeth Duke, Edmund Phelps, James Galbraith, Jason Furman, Joseph Stiglitz, Austan Goolsbee, Gene Sperling, Donald Kohn, Jared Bernstein, Heidi Hartmann, Karen Kornbluh, Robert Solow, Jeff Liebman, Larry Summers, Dan McFadden, Brad Delong, Robert Reich, Daniel Tarullo, Richard Thaler, David Romer, Kevin Warsh, Christina Romer, Ben Bernanke and Alan Greenspan.

All these top figures along with the rank and file of mainstream economists believe in credit expansion. All these grandmas and grandpas believe in Keynesian dogmatism. None of them questions the existence of fiat money nor sins of central banking. Everybody else doesn't need a Ph.D. in economics to start pointing fingers at them. Those old folks have built a failure system and, by preventing its due collapse, want to drag everybody down. Nobel Prize intellectually deficient people will never allow free market capitalism free from government-created money. Look below at what kind of utter nonsense these 'top economists' are capable of.

In the fall of 1999, US central bank (Fed) officials gathered to talk about deflation: What would they do if faced with deflation, or widespread falling prices, and they already had cut interest rates to zero? Deflation is dangerous because it makes it hard to boost the economy by cutting interest rates, and because it makes debt harder to repay. At this meeting, researchers brainstormed about possible ways the Fed could spur spending, such as adding a magnetic strip to dollar bills that would cause their value to drop the longer they stayed in one's wallet.
Other proposals, some possibly not legal, were for the Fed to lend to private companies or buy things such as stocks, real estate or even goods and services, such as used cars. And then there are those magnetic strips. Marvin Goodfriend, a top economist at the Richmond Fed, proposed at the Woodstock conference that a way to stimulate the economy if interest rates are already at zero is to levy a fee on banks that keep cash on deposit with the Fed rather than lending it out, and to find a way to make currency worth less the longer it goes unspent -- thus the magnetic strips. When someone deposited a bank note, a "carry tax" would be deducted according to how long it had been since it was withdrawn. These charges for holding on to cash would effectively create negative interest rates. "Asking people to carry around some one-dollar bills that are worth 99.4 cents and some that are worth 98.4 cents would be a terrible nuisance," Alan Blinder, a former Fed vice chairman, observed at the Woodstock meeting. He added, "Prevention is far better than the cure."
Source : contactpakistan.com

Logical Hyperinflationist Rebuttal

2009-02-23T05:09:00.001Z

Peter Schiff has recently explained how the 'temporary strength in the dollar' has destroyed his vision of events and his clients' portfolios. Eric deCarbonnel, on the other hand, takes on Peter Schiff's critics by depicting the same hyperinflationary collapse which looms over the US.

The root cause of deflation and hyperinflation is the same: a nation plagued by mountain of debt. This mountain of debt can be in form of a massive national debt, an insolvent financial system, or both. What determines whether a debt-plagued nation experiences deflation or hyperinflation is the response of that nation’s monetary authority:

A) If the monetary authority does nothing while a country defaults on its debt, its banks go bankrupt, and its depositors see their savings wiped out, then that country will experience deflation.
B) If the monetary authority chooses to monetize a country’s national debt, its banks’ bad loans, or the savings of depositors at failed banks, then that country will experience hyperinflation.

It is simply not true. Japan did monetize debts, saved its banking system and kept the interest rates at zero. For 2 decades I have heard about bad loans kept alive in the Japanese banks. Eric's description argues : after 20 years of hyperinflationary monetary policies in Japan, you would need today ten truck loads of money to buy a loaf of bread.

Today, the US is the nation facing hyperinflation as the fed monetizes debt, and the EU looks set for deflation as the ECB allows Europe’s financial system to collapse.
The USD rally will end when Europe's financial system starts collapsing. Investors will realize that the EU won't print money to bail out its banks, and that will send the euro soaring against the dollar.

No. Europe has been bailing out its banks for over a year. It is bailing out its automobile industry. Europe will continue to bail them out not to allow its financial system to collapse and the economy to halt. Germany's opposition will likely lead to the euro's ultimate collapse. Europe is printing like mad, although quietly.

Anyone who thinks things are going badly in China hasn’t been paying attention. Optimism is growing in China. Economists now project that China will be the likely leader of an elusive worldwide economic recovery.
China has irreversibly begun to break its “dependence” on US consumers.

This cannot be serious. China has a centrally and manually orchestrated economy. Poverty, corruption, reliance on the capital and technology from the West. China is boosting its housing market by : slashing mortgage rates, lowering real estate purchase tax, council tax and land tax. This is an inflationary war footing against prudent savers. The average Chinese household may have saved up to 20.000 pounds. Optimism will turn savings into housing bubble and electronic gadgets. So much for a worldwide economic recovery.

3) China’s treasury holdings are a much bigger problem for China than they are for the US.

I love this one. While it is true that China is having problems dealing with their massive dollar reserves, to then say that those reserves are a bigger problem for China then the US is hilarious.
Simply put, if you had to choose, which problem would you rather have?

A) China’s problem of having “too much cash”
B) The US’s problem of having “too much debt”

I choose too much debt. As long as I print their 'too much cash' and I default on somebody else's lending.

The US is not facing a decade of falling prices, because :

Agricultural commodities NEED to head higher and soon, to prevent even greater food shortages and famine. The price of wheat, corn, soybeans, etc must rise to a level which encourages the planting of every available acre with the best possible fertilizers. Otherwise, if food prices stay at their current levels, production will continue to fall, sentencing millions more to starvation.

Unless you pay with currency gaining purchasing power, which will be the unfortunate case.

6) If China floated the yuan, it could easily get smashed like other export based economies.

A quick comparison of the fundamentals backing the yuan and the dollar should reveal how they would fare if the yuan was floated.

I won't sell USD/CNY. It would be pure suicide. Besides, Eric's comparison doesn't take into account the most important fundamentals; 1) USD is a world reserve currency. 2) USA are the world's biggest economy. 3) China's economy is flawed and unnatural.3) So is CNY.

ANYTHING is better than the US dollar: Yuan, euro, yen, gold, silver, oil, food, art, etc… Even the British pound will be worth more against the dollar by the end of the year. (and the British pound isn’t going to be worth much…)

This stands against 7 month USD bull market. Everything but JPY has been smashed in dollar terms. Currency trends last longer than 7 months. Price trends eliminate investors who stick to ill-conceived beliefs.

Świat się wali, ale co ja mogę

2009-02-23T03:27:00.000Z

Dziś, z łóżka się zwlekłszy, poszedłem na zakupy. Inaczej niż zwykle, nie płaciłem kartą i byłem piechotą. Kupiłem smar do roweru oraz piłkę do metalu. Specyficzne : potrafię dłubać przy rowerze godzinami. Gdybym te godziny poświęcił na nadgodziny w pracy, po jednej dniówce kupiłbym 2 razy lepszy rower. Chyba to lubię.

Byłem w centrum rowerowym. Zobaczyłem wystawę - muzeum przerzutek. Stare były używane, nowe były nowe. Widocznie nikt nie myślał o uwiecznianiu przy cudzie stworzenia - w latach sześćdziesiątych. Poza tym stwierdziłem, że przerzutka to przerzutka. Bardziej chodzi o modę niż wydajność. Zwłaszcza, że moda panuje na trefne części zamienne, chleb dla serwisów.

Lidl. Polska wędlina, parówki Frankfurters. Przede mną Azjatka koło 50-tki. Siwe odrosty, trochę się rozpycha na podajniku. Pewnie była urodziwa, dziś pozostało jej : być kobietą, stosując powszechnie uznane środki. Pani przy kasie zbiera kody pocztowe. It's a part of the survey - tłumaczy. Azjatka nie odpowiedziała. Stawiam na to, że nie rozumie po tutejszemu. Ja odpowiadam - sure. To najbliższy mi Lidl.

Naprawiłem rower Chińczykowi. Z radości zaserwował mi sweet corn soup oraz garlic bread. Pytam się, czy mogę użyć ketchupu. Odpowiedział - If you need, you can use ketchup. Thanks for permission. Jeżeli Izrael zaatakuje Iran, Rosja stanie po stronie Iranu, a USA za Izraelem - co zrobią Chiny? zapytałem. Namyśla się. Będą czekać - odpowiada. Na rozwój wypadków. Będą dużo mówić, ale akcji nie podejmą. Do gry wejdą na końcu.

Przeglądnąłem newsy w Polsce. Po staremu - poszukiwanie winnych osłabienia złotego. Żenada. Witch hunters nie zastanawiają się nad niebywałą siłą złotego aż do sierpnia 2008. Nie widzą, że wszystkie bez wyjątku waluty regionu słabną; widzą natomiast że złoty najsłabszy jest. A czy wiedzą, ile Polska ma długu. I w końcu złowiono - Goldman Sachs oraz Danske Bank. I wyzywają od Żydów, którzy zrujnowali polski biznes. Nieważne, że każdy frankowy kredytobiorca to spekulant sprzedający franka. Że firma, zabezpieczająca się przez umocnieniem złotego, kupuje go, spekulując na jego wzrost.

Elity rządzące natomiast są w wielkim szoku. PO - Tusk i Chlebowski - proponują bezzwrotne dopłaty do kredytów we frankach. Aczkolwiek nie wiadomo jeszcze, czy do końca bezzwrotne. I czy tylko dla bezrobotnych. I do każdego rodzaju mieszkania. Wnioskuję przeto, że Donku faktycznie zamierza urządzić drugą Irlandię, która tylko dzięki oparciu o ECB nie zbankrutowała. My, obywatele, mieszkańcy miast i wsi, śpieszmy z pomocą - rzucić pieniążki na tacę PO. Bo desperado frankowcy źle sobie wykalkulowali. PO jednak gryzie bilet w jedną stronę - jeżeli oszczędni i rozumni się postawią, te miliony można wydrukować. Bez uszczerbku na kursie złotego, przecież już niedługo znajdziemy się pod skrzydłami boskiego euro!

Upiekłem faszerowanego kurczaka. Dzwonił Mike 4 razy, ale nie miałem okazji odebrać. Na polu (tak, na polu) ciepło jak w późno marcowej Małopolsce.

O co chodzi?

2009-02-08T05:04:00.001Z

Czyli polowania na czarownice ciąg dalszy.

"To zamach na polską gospodarkę. Trzeba jak najszybciej podjąć kroki, by uciąć wielką spekulację na rynku złotego. Trzeba też zmusić banki, by wypiły piwo, jakie samy nawarzyły".
Zbigniew Jakubas

Zbigniew Jakubas wstał rano, otrzepał słomę i wziął widły do ręki. A że niewiele miał ze Spartakusa, zaraz zrobił sobie krzywdę. I z niesmakiem odrzucił widły w kąt. Po czym zaplanował sobie, że zabierze głos. I powiedział, co wiedział. A co wiedział, okazało się dziurą w miejsce formalnej edukacji i nieznajomością rzeczywistości za płotem.

"Wydarzenia na rynku walutowym to celowa gra. Chodzi o doprowadzenie do zamykania pozycji na wystawionych przez firmy opcjach kupna waluty przy możliwie słabym złotym. Obecne kursy są już absurdalne. Dlatego spodziewam się fali bankuctw wśród firm, które są mocniej zaangażowane na rynku opcji walutowych".
Ryszard Petru

A ja bym się spodziewał po bankowym 'autorytecie' wstydu i strachu przed kompromitacją. "Celowa gra" to bardzo ciekawa teoria, z której nie wytłumaczą pana Rysia krawat, gładka mowa i wymuskany blog.

"Przyspieszenie osłabienia zwykle poprzedza zmianę trendu. Bardziej jestem skłonny wierzyć w to, że mamy do czynienia ze spekulacyjnym osłabieniem złotego. Możemy podejrzewać, że istnieją jakieś duże opcje na rynku, pod które toczy się gra, a nie, że mamy do czynienia z jakimś fundamentalnym odwrotem od złotego".
Emil Szweda

Koń by się uśmiał. Przyspieszenie trendu może, ale nie musi poprzedzać korekty. Dlaczego od razu zmianę trendu? Trendy walutowe trwają latami, a ten się dopiero zaczął. A fundamenty mają to do siebie, że leżą tam, gdzie wzrok (zwłaszcza Emila S.) nie sięga.

"Projekt ustawy unieważniającej niekorzystne dla klientów umowy na opcje walutowe z bankami zaproponuje rządowi PSL - zapowiedział dziś szef Stronnictwa, wicepremier, minister gospodarki Waldemar Pawlak."
onet.pl

Spekulant Pawlak lepiej niech cepa na banki nie podnosi, bo nie przystoi.

"To pierwsza tak stanowcza wypowiedź przedstawiciela rządu na ten temat. Wierzę, że zapowiedzi wicepremiera zostaną zrealizowane"
Zbigniew Jakubas

Spekulant Jakubas umoczył kasę, a teraz chce napadu na bank. Kiedy zarabiał przy mocnym złotym, siedział cicho jak urżnięte prosię.

O co chodzi? Nie o to, że wszystkie waluty od sierpnia 2008 straciły do dolara i jena. Że im mniejszy i bardziej zadłużony kraj, tym bardziej się oberwało. Nie o to, że Kazachstan zdewaluował tengę. Że Fitch Ratings obniżył rating długu Rosji po raz pierwszy od 1998 roku. Że trend wzrostowy na złotym trwał lat kilka, a 6 miesięcy temu definitywnie się skończył. Że w obliczu kryzysu, który nadciąga, złoty z łatwością pobije rekordy słabości z lat 2001-2002. Chodzi o to, że banda nieuków i kaszaniarzy, tytułowanych prezesami, dyrektorami i ministrami, brzydko się bawi po tym, jak im nie wyszły spekulacje. Zapłaćcie, coście winni, i nie brać się za FOREX, bo to rynek dla elit!

Viking Soul

2009-02-01T00:56:00.001Z

“Our enemies are innovative and resourceful, and so are we. They never stop thinking about new ways to harm our country and our people, and neither do we.”

One may wonder how come George Bush remained in power for so many years and didn't lock up himself.

"One would need a type of agreement on lost capital, so that the burden is shared, and in which every country is part of, otherwise more countries will suffer. The EU should do this. If they don't do this then the euro may not survive the crisis."

29 January, 2009
George Soros

In July, 2008, Soros shorted oil at $137 a barrel and put on a long position in gold. I smiled then. But it wasn't funny to see this trade to be thus successful. Note: Euro = Insolvent Ireland. Socialist France. Housing bubble Spain. Inflationist Italy. Export oriented Germany. (Ouch!)
There's a dozen reasons why we should see Euro-USD parity within months. Those who found refuge in the euro will likely run further into the dollar, yen and gold.

Telegraph reports:

For years scientists have failed to discover why as many as one in five pregnancies in a small Brazilian town have resulted in twins – most of them blond haired and blue eyed. But residents of Candido Godoi now claim that Mengele made repeated visits there in the early 1960s, posing at first as a vet but then offering medical treatment to the women of the town. Shuttling between Argentina, Paraguay and Brazil, he managed to evade justice before his death in 1979, but his dreams of a Nazi master race appeared unfulfilled. In a new book, Mengele: the Angel of Death in South America, the Argentine historian Jorge Camarasa, a specialist in the post-war Nazi flight to South America, has painstakingly pieced together the Nazi doctor's mysterious later years. After speaking to the townspeople of Candido Godoi, he is convinced that Mengele continued his genetic experiments with twins – with startling results.

Quite a long and peaceful life for a German psycho killer. Did you ever feel protected from evil? That is a dangerous illusion inseparable from human nature.

"Let me be clear on one point: I can’t predict the short-term movements of the stock market. I haven’t the faintest idea as to whether stocks will be higher or lower a month — or a year — from now. What is likely, however, is that the market will move higher, perhaps substantially so, well before either sentiment or the economy turns up. So if you wait for the robins, spring will be over."
16 October, 2008
Warren Buffet, arguably the richest man on earth

Today, the stocks are 20% cheaper. I did better than that. From today's point of view, Buffet's call was a cry for help. This guy doesn't get that some can't afford to lose 20% or more of their assets. I won't touch stocks with a ten-foot pole for the next couple of months.

Dailymail reports :

Inside the shiny new hospital, a tormented soul stalks the wards and corridors. Yet this is no ill patient, overworked junior doctor or beleaguered NHS trust executive. It is a ghost – or so says a leaked memo from a manager. Several workers at the £334million Royal Hospital in Derby have apparently been scared witless by the apparition, which they describe as a man dressed in black and wearing a cloak, who can walk through walls. Some believe the visitor is the ghost of a Roman soldier. The site used to be occupied by Derby’s City General Hospital, which was controversially built over one of Ancient Britain’s main Roman roads. Spooky past: The hospital was built over the Roman road in the 1920s leading to speculation that the ghost may be that of a Roman soldier killed there.

I speak to Roman soldiers from time to time. They say the Vikings spook them. They always remember to mention they discovered America before the Vikings. Sometimes, I think they speak to me because I am a Viking, too.

Current trends

2009-01-25T03:33:00.000Z

Dollar : bullish
Yen : bullish
Exotic currencies : bearish
Money purchasing power : growing
Stocks : bearish
Oil : bottoming
Gold : sideways
Chinese Democracy : GNR's worst album
Gwyneth Paltrow : most beautiful
My health : steady
Love : I don't do love
Sian : gone to Asia
Winter : turning into spring
Hanging on the wall : charts of my life trends

It doesn't matter who you believe you are. It doesn't matter who you are not. Your mind is like liquid silver. When I take a dive into my memory, I cannot believe how much I lived through. I have an impression I had many personalities and different lives. I was happier when I was poorer and had less to lose. People are rational. But the colours they see don't talk to them about the light source.
The light of our mind is lit early in our lives. It may be modified once or twice later. Some can turn it on and off. They are called clairvoyants or abominable witches.

Złotówka

2009-01-24T17:36:00.000Z

Źródło : www.owg.pl

Globalne delewarowanie ma się dobrze. W perspektywie kilku lat, gospodarki rozwijające się, w tym polska, najgorzej odczują światową recesję. Efektami będą : wysokie bezrobocie, tanie waluty, ujemny wzrost gospodarczy. Powodami są - eksportowy model gospodarki oraz globalny przepływ kapitału. Poniżej natomiast zamieszczam zabawne komentarze z forum onet.pl na temat osłabienia polskiej waluty. Jakbym czytał uduchowiony podręcznik do środowiska z XII wieku.

Polowanie na czarownice

Bańka!!! mieliśmy już bańkę internetową, bańkę mieszkaniową, a teraz na naszych oczach pompowana jest bańka walutowa. A najgorsze jest, że ta bańka pompowana jest Waszymi oszczędnościami. Mechanizm jest prosty - trzeba krzyczeć, że złoty się osłabia i nasze pieniądze są coraz mniej warte, a jednocześnie banda oszlołomów przechwala się, ile to już zarobiła na inwestycji w waluty.

~relax

Bardzo dobrze piszesz. Dodam tylko, że osłabienie złotówki podtrzyma wzrost gospodarczy w Polsce. Ta bańka jest na razie korzystna, więc pewnie długo nie potrwa.

~Alek

Należy dodać, że to jest potężna "spekuła". Rośnie nie tylko eurodolar, ale wszystkie inne waluty/: forint , rubel, funt, lit, łat, korona czeska, dolar nowozelandzki, australijski.

~normalny

Czołowe banki inwestycyjne probują odkuć straty w USA na Polaczkach wmawiając, że złoty popłynie i wrzucając kasę na nasz płytki rynek, przy jednoczesnym zapchaniu portfeli futuresami na PLN.

~antyJPMorgus

Dzisiaj to tylko korekta przed odbiciem. Za miesiac zobaczycie euro po 3,15, a funta za 2,5zł ,taka prawda .

~analityk

Ale w Polsce kryzysu nie ma ...Kryzys nas ominął i to jest najważniejsze ...

~Jamicz

Ktoś świadomie miesza wartością złotego W sierpniu zeszłego roku, za 1Euro płacono miedzy 3.20 3.35zł ,teraz jest już prawie 1zł więcej. Należało wtedy kupić dużą kwotę Euro, dziś byłby z tego zysk 1zł od każdego zakupionego Euro. Jaki bank da wam więcej na lokacie niż 10% w stosunku rocznym ? (...) Kto dobrze obserwuje kantory i oficjalne dane z NBP widzi, że złoty jest manewrowany z zewnątrz .

~kwidzynianin

Spekula i tyle. Dziś specjalnie jp morgan wysłał info o zerowym wzroście pkb, żeby zarobić na baranach z Polski.

~jd

A kto do ciężkej ustala kurs walut. Skąd to się bierze i na ile jest wiarygodne, a nie spekulacyjne?

~Misio

La Génération Perdue

2009-01-19T02:14:00.000Z

"L'État est prêt à tout faire pour soutenir l'industrie automobile, 10% de la population active française".

Nicolas Sarkozy, Président de la Génération Perdue

Qu'est-ce que la prospérité? Qu'est-ce qui manquait aux Indiens d'Amérique du Nord avant l'arrivée des habitants de l'Europe de l'Ouest? Une chose est certaine: les Indiens ont assuré un niveau de vie suffisant (eau, nourriture, abris) à faible coût.

Dans cette ére de prospérité économique, en dépit du développement scientifique et de l'éducation massive, malgré l'invention de l'électricité et d'un moteur à combustion interne, de plus en plus de gens se posent la question "comment je vais payer mon loyer?" et "de quoi vais-je vivre?". L'Économie actuelle n'est pas en mesure de fournir de l'emploi au nombre croissant de citoyens, sans lequel les besoins fondamentaux - eau, nourriture, abris - ne sont pas atteignable.

Peu de gens se demandent pourquoi, peu de gens comprennent. Mon point de vue est le suivant. L'Économie est l'une des sciences les plus jeunes. Les moins approfondies et les moins bien compris. L'École classique d'économie est pleine de cadavres de ceux qui voulaient faire du thème de l'économie un ensemble de lois. Comme les lois sont invalides, l'économie ne veut pas fonctionner.

Voyons comment les vues courantes sur l'économie sont absurdes. La société veut que l'état sauve l'industrie automobile. L'État doit donc prendre à tout le monde. Le public est-il d'accord? Non! A la première occasion de l'augmentation des impôts ou d'autres problèmes financiers, le public protestera. Pour appeler de l'aide. Au détriment de qui? N'importe qui?

Grâce à cette spirale de longue durée, l'intervention d'état (de société) dans la forme de l'économie (dans la distribution d'énergie économique) nous place dans une situation où nous devons faire des choses surhumaines pour nous assurer une existence basique. Les gens ne semblent pas comprendre qu'ils passent la plupart de leur vie à réaliser un BUSINESS dont ils ne peuvent pas profiter.

- La course aux armements. Pas de frontières, pas de course.

- Médecine. Afin de te soucier de la surpopulation mondiale.

- Les banques en faillite. Pour que tu n'aies pas ta propre banque.

- Aide pour les pauvres. Si tu as les moyens, donne aux pauvres.

- Universités. Les bibliothèques n'ont pas besoin de professeurs.

- Pensions. L' épargne n'est pas en vogue.

- Police. Pour que tu ne blesses pas un cambrioleur. Pour que tu ne fasses pas du mal au voleur de millions.

- Les musées, les monuments. As-tu assez d'argent pour maintenir ce que tu n'as pas le temps de voir?

- Sénat, le gouvernement. Pour que quelqu'un soit maître de la situation.

- La Cour. Peux-tu te permettre un avocat? La loi?

Pound Sterling

2009-01-11T04:16:00.000Z

Pound supportive :

Short GBP positions have been very popular recently

Credit markets are temporarily thawing, allowing capital flows from the core (USD, YEN, Euro) further down the way (Pound, AUD, Canadian Dollar)

There is definitely more speculation on FX today, after stock and housing markets collapsed - it means price may easily overshoot to the upside (overblown correction)

British citizens have moved their assets into the Euro

British economy is stronger than Spanish, Irish or French economies; those focusing on UK problems overlook problems elswhere

Rumours have been heard that the United Kingdom can go bankrupt

So I would be cautious about shorting the Pound again. I would wait.

Despe906 takes on Barack Obama

2009-01-11T00:34:00.001Z

"Why me?" Patrick Swayze asking. When he was on top, some were dying, silently. Was he thinking - "Why me?"

Mr Obama was elected and many wonder why him. My question is - why not him? America needs a nice president. Me, I am neither nice nor sober. I couldn't be a good president today. Just have a look.

Despe906 takes on Barack Obama

"We should have an open and honest discussion about this recovery plan in the days ahead."

Openly and honestly, you're not an economist, Mr Obama. You are a politician.

"I urge Congress to move as quickly as possible on behalf of the American people."

Are you emotional, Mr Obama? Panicking? At least, on somebody else's behalf.

"For every day we wait or point fingers or drag our feet, more Americans will lose their jobs."

Is this a cause and effect pattern? What did Congress do, when Americans were finding jobs?

"More families will lose their savings. More dreams will be deferred and denied. And our nation will sink deeper into a crisis that, at some point, we may not be able to reverse."

Look. I am drunk. But I can see clearly that you forsee the results of your actions. The problem is that the word 'inaction' has an inactive use in your presidential tool kit.

"If nothing is done, this recession could linger for years. The unemployment rate could reach double digits."

After everything is done, the depression will linger for a decade. The unofficial unemployment number will reach double digits.

"I understand that some might be skeptical of this plan. Our government has already spent a good deal of money, but we haven't yet seen that translate into more jobs or higher incomes or renewed confidence in our economy."

You do not understand why some are sceptical. You will see no deal of money translate positively into the economy. East of Alaska, they haven't yet seen government spending create prosperity either. Wait time : 10 decades.

"There is no doubt that the cost of this plan will be considerable. It will certainly add to the budget deficit in the short term. But equally certain are the consequences of doing too little or nothing at all, for that will lead to an even greater deficit of jobs, incomes and confidence in our economy."

There is no doubt the cost of this plan will be considerable. It will massively add to the budget deficit in the long term, but equally certain are events in case Congress does nothing. The difference is malinvestment will be liquidated, insolvent banks and industries will go bankrupt, those who had brains will emerge as new economical power. Something you can't allow to happen, can you?

2009 - Prognozy

2009-01-04T00:02:00.001Z

Co dostrzegam : dwie tendencje. Jeden obóz skupiony jest na planach ratunkowych. Większość popiera; uważa, że to jedyne wyjście z sytuacji. Mniejszość bije na alarm, wskazując na rosnące obciążenia fiskalne i ryzyko hiperinflacji. Drugi obóz wierzy w deflację i depresję. Wskazują na Japonię i lata 30 ubiegłego stulecia. Jest to obóz mniejszościowy, do którego się zaliczam.

Natomiast uważam, że rynki pójdą w kierunku, jakim go widzi grupa pierwsza.
Powody:
1.Deflacja złamała rynek nieruchomości, surowców i akcji. Wszystkie klasy mocno wyprzedane.

2. Temat deflacji i delewarowania stanowczo się przyjął jako jeden z głównych wątków w szerokich mediach.

3. Nie słyszałem głosu o noworocznej hossie - toż to temat przewodni w grudniu, biorąc za wzór ostatnie 10 lat na rynkach papierów!

4. Analiza techniczna sprzyja zwyżce na indeksach. Ostatni dołek był inny niż poprzednie. Była gwałtowna huśtawka i duże obroty.

5. Analitycy, których cenię, nie wykluczają krótkoterminowej hossy.

6. Są już pierwsze sygnały. Ropa daje znaki życia, co odczułem pozytywnie na własnym portfelu. Indeksy giełd zachodnich wybiły się z konsolidacji. Choć spokojnie i bez entuzjazmu.

7. Większość podskórnie wierzy, że koniec roku może przynieść poprawę.

8. Pesymizm przez ostatnie 3 miesiące był wystarczająco silny, by się znudził. Poprzez czysty wpływ czasu, uwaga powinna się skupić na czymś nowym.

Jeżeli giełdy ruszą w górę, jest możliwy wzrost o ponad 20%. Ruch na giełdach rynków wschodzących, w tym polskiej, może być słabszy. Powróci strach przed inflacją. Wzrosną surowce, ceny detaliczne przestaną spadać. Kapitał pomału ruszy w świat, osłabiając dolara, jena i euro, a wzmacniając funta, dolara australijskiego, kanadyjskiego. Być może zatrzymana zostanie na dłużej dewaluacja walut egzotycznych, co do których należy nie mieć złudzeń : ucierpią najbardziej w perspektywie kilku lat.

W mediach zagości znajomy optymizm. Drugi obóz zostanie odesłany do separatki. Z czasem jednak, uważam, obóz pierwszy zderzy się z górą lodową faktów. Wzrośnie bezrobocie, gospodarki nie przestaną się kurczyć. Kolejne firmy upadną. Rządy nie będą nadążać z pompowaniem pieniędzy. Wtedy kierunek dokona zwrotu : obóz drugi powinien zagościć na dobre w kanałach informacji. Zanim odda trybunę, będzie już obozem większościowym.

2009-01-03T20:27:00.000Z

Paryż jest żywym naprzeciwko!

Grupy wzmocnić lub zniszczyć ich członków. Człowiek programu jest nieco bardziej rozbudowane. Jeden musi być ograniczona do połączenia ich głupi.

Jego Kaznodzieja, pan ratowania i jego szeregi rosną silne. Pani deflacji płaci rachunek I nalega, aby zapisać. Widzę pułapek zawartych okolice.

I posłał do piekła w wielu przypadkach, ma wrócić i podjąć wysokie ulicy życie. Coś trzeba pamiętać, że poziom cen nie należy prowadzić pojazdów percepcji.

Ty pokaż swój portfel, gdy znajduje się kobieta ładna. Jakie byłyby niewielkie znaczenie, biorąc pod uwagę portfel. Ma dwa rekordy, rozpoczęła perfum i chce moje zdjęcie łańcucha.
A Paryż jest żywym naprzeciwko!

Powyższe to dowcipy automatycznego tłumacza wyszukiwarki google. Myślę, że ludzie rozumieją się między sobą z porównywalnym sukcesem.

2008-12-27T22:41:00.000Z

A Mouse and Groups Power

A mouse is programmed to search for food, reproduce and find a way out of trap. The man's programme is a bit more developed. It has an added dimension which enabled him to create civilisation, propaganda, economies and wars. It makes a man subject to Groups Power.

Groups Power is a dynamism of individual policies which makes a man obey the stronger (as long as he has no choice) and bully the weaker (possibly to make them even weaker). Men join or create groups in quest for power. They regroup. Groups strenghten or destroy their members.

I always had a tendency of steering away from people, for security purposes. I am self-sufficient and do not need "friendship". For me, being a part of group has unpleasant disadvantages. The flip side of my policy is not loneliness, as common sense would suggest. It is agression and generally lack of sympathy for my independance. It scares them, feeds their flawed imagination. They want to test me into their games. But group members get outsmarted by mice.

I am like a mouse. I am programmed to store value. I see traps laid around.

"The policies now being pursued by the Bush administration to revive growth by boosting consumption aren’t the solution to the country’s long-term structural economic problem."

Zhou Xiaochuan, Governor of Central Bank of China

So why to boost consumption in China the way the FED does? Is there anything the Chinese want? So let them produce it. Plus allow private banking with sane reserve system. You do not need Anglo-Saxon 'capitalism'.

"Under normal circumstances, no question bankruptcy court is the best way to work through credit and debt and restructuring”. “These aren’t normal circumstances. That’s the problem" .

George W Bush, President of Most Powerful Group

That's right, Mr Bush. Under normal circumstances, you wouldn't be a president.

2008-12-15T03:43:00.000Z

Cornerstone of Year 2013

Something you must bear in mind is that price levels do not drive perception. You better consider perception do not influence price movements either.

What I want to suggest is Perception and Price go hand in hand.

What really drives Perception and Price is time. Trend is a bigger picture which shows how Price and Perception evolve over time.

Year 2008 has been a coffin for some long term ideas, and gave birth to some new which can be long term until 2013.

Mr Decoupling, after a considerable success of worldwide tour has been shot dead in his Sunday Best. Mrs Houseprice also collapsed, after stating last year she would be fine by then.

Bad boy Buck, after being whipped and sent to hell on many occasions, has come back and taken the high street by force. He expelled all the witches asleep in their commodity booths.

A new religion was born. Its Preacher, Mr Bailout and his ranks grow strong. And the stage was dimly lit - Mrs Deflation pays the bill and urges to save.

The army of investors came home defeated after a decade of successes. They lick their wounds. They won't fight : they want to teach their sons about not to lose.

Some time before 2013, we will see Mr Buck take on Mr Bailout. The winner will consumare la vita with Ms Depression. Then, the stage will be set for new roles.